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To: Eric Wells who wrote (78741)	9/27/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Did Barnes and Noble really get "Amazoned" as the article states? Looking at BKS latest income statements, it looks like they continue to have pretty good revenue and profit growth. Eric, BKS is doing fine. BNBN is also showing sequential revenue growth in the core book market something that AMZN is not. BOL is beating up AMZN big time in Europe. See: bol.com Glenn

To: Eric Wells who wrote (78741)	9/27/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

E-tailers vie for holiday bonus By Lawrence Aragon Redherring.com September 25, 1999 It's not even Halloween yet, and already e-tailers are getting charged up about Christmas. E-tailers believe in Santa, especially because industry analysts predict a blockbuster fourth quarter. But they're also terrified he'll leave them off his list. Some observers say this holiday season will be an electronic-commerce inflection point, separating the adults from the children. Look for some major outcomes this holiday season. E-tailers will barrage consumers with advertising, creating confusion rather than clarity. Players that already sport strong brands will emerge as big winners. Investors will punish e-tailers that lack the infrastructure, customer service, and other essential elements needed to be a long-term player. Here's the good news: online shoppers will spend $12.2 billion worldwide this Christmas, almost three times as much as they did last year, according to a report issued this week from market researcher Dataquest. Hoping to tap this largesse, e-tailers are spending unprecedented amounts of money on advertising. IT'S GRRREAT! Hundreds of dot-coms have set up multimillion-dollar advertising budgets, says Bradley Johnson, interactive editor at Advertising Age, the world's largest advertising and marketing magazine. Eve.com, for example, is in the middle of a $5 million campaign, and Toysrus.com has retained Leo Burnett, the top-tier agency that created Tony the Tiger and the Marlboro Man. "The figures are still coming in, but count on more than $3 billion being spent this year, with that figure heavily weighted toward the fourth quarter," Mr. Johnson says. Do the math and you'll conclude that e-tailers will spend a full one-quarter of the sales they hope to generate. "The war chests that have been put in place for this Christmas season are awesome, and that money is going to get spent," says Michael Murphy, editor of the California Technology Stock Letter. "It looks like the purpose of a dot-com is to transfer money from venture capitalists to ad agencies." TAKE ME, PLEASE All the nation's top ad agencies have been hired by dot-coms. It's gotten so crazy that agencies are no longer pitching e-tail clients; instead, clients are pitching them, Mr. Johnson says. All of which will make for a confusing Christmas for consumers, who will likely be overwhelmed by dot-com ads. "Each of these dot-coms is convinced it has to build its brand this year and break through the clutter," Mr. Johnson says. "The result is more clutter than we've ever seen. There will be a very clear advantage to dot-coms that have succeeded in getting their brands known." In fact, most e-commerce companies will post huge net losses. Don't expect most investors to get spooked, though, says Mr. Murphy. They'll be looking primarily at revenue growth, just as they always have, he predicts. Investors are more likely to react to how e-tailers perform under pressure, says Lauren Cooks Levitan, principal and senior e-tailing analyst at Bancboston Robertson Stephens. Last Christmas looked to be a trial run for Web consumers. This year, expect them to be more savvy and less willing to tolerate technical glitches or poor service, she notes. "The main thing this will precipitate is some consolidation," Ms. Levitan says. "In many categories you have multiple players beating up each other. You might see weaker players say, 'We can't make it on our own and we need someone to help us make it work.'" With such a long shopping list, Santa surely will overlook somebody. Expect to see many e-commerce hopefuls with empty stockings the morning after, despite pre-holiday spending sprees. redherring.com