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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (27681)	9/28/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Gottfried, while your argument is compelling, what is worrisome about this NAZ p/e chart is the CHANGE it depicts that has taken place over the last few years. essentially we have jumped from a p/e of 29 in '95 to a p/e of 158 now. before '95 the p/e was considerably lower, but i would say that the premium p/e of '95 was deserved based on the fact that many tech upstarts list on the Nasdaq. however, when you see the rate of ascent on this chart you cannot help but get a bit nervous. with all due respect to the great prospects of many of the Nasdaq listed companies i do not believe that anyone can dispute the fact that most are horrendously overvalued. if companies with revenues of a few million dollars and no earnings are awarded multi billion market caps something has to be out of whack, no matter what their prospects are (aside from the fact that these prospects are as of yet mostly unproven). i am well aware that no-one can tell the market what to do and these valuations may become even more monstrous. however, that doesn't change the fact that what is happening here has little if anything to do with fundamentals or reality. it is a bubble, plain and simple, induced by the Fed's wide open liquidity spigot in recent years. regards, hb

To: Gottfried who wrote (27681)	9/28/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Craig Richards	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Gottfried, Here's a list of 130 NASDAQ stocks with a market cap > $1 billion and no earnings (i.e. losses). These are the stocks that cause the composite P/E to look outrageous and indicate the speculative mania is alive and well. Note that there are stocks like AMZN with a huge market cap and questionable prospects for turning a profit any time soon, yet WCOM is also on the list. I assume that's because the earnings numbers used for this scan aren't massaged to exclude merger write-offs. This list was derived using TeleChart 2000. ACXM Acxiom Corp ADECY Adecco S.A. Adr ADLAC Adelphia Communication A AERL Aerial Communications AFFX Affymetrix Inc AGIL Agile Software Corp AGRPA Associated Group Cl A ALGX Allegiance Telecom Inc AMZN Amazon.Com Inc ARBA Ariba Inc ARTG Art Technology Group Inc ATHM At Home Corp Ser A BAANF Baan Co Nv BEAS Bea Systems Inc BLDP Ballard Power Systms Inc BRCD Brocade Communications CARI Careinsite Inc CIEN Ciena Corporation CITC Citadel Communication Cp CLRN Clarent Corporation CMTN Copper Mountain Networks COVD Covad Communications Grp CPTH Critical Path Inc CSKKY Csk Corp Spon Adr CYCL Centennial Cellular Cp A DAIEY Daiei Inc Adr DCLK Doubleclick Inc DIGX Digex Inc DISH Echostar Commun Corp EELN E-Loan Inc EFNT Efficient Networks Inc EGOV National Info Consortium EGRP E*Trade Group Inc ELNK Earthlink Network Inc EMMS Emmis Communication Cl A ENGA Engage Technologies Inc ENTU Entrust Technologies Inc ENZN Enzon Inc ETYS Etoys Inc EXDS Exodus Communications EXTR Extreme Networks Inc FFIV F5 Networks Inc GILD Gilead Sciences Inc GNET Go2net Inc GOTO Goto.Com Inc GSPN Globespan Inc GSTRF Globalstar Telecomm Ltd GTSG Global Telesystems Group HGSI Human Genome Sciences HLTH Healtheon Corporation HSAC High Speed Access Corp HYPT Hyperion Telecomm Inc A IDTI Integrated Device Tech IFMX Informix Corp IIXC Ixc Communications Inc IIXL Ixl Enterprises Inc INKT Inktomi Corporation INSP Infospace.Com Inc ITCD Itc Deltacom Inc JAPNY Japan Airlines Ltd JDEC J.D. Edwards & Co JDSU Jds Uniphase Corp JNPR Juniper Networks JOINA Jones Intercable Inc A LAMR Lamar Advertising Co A LBRT Liberate Technologies LCOS Lycos Inc LDIG Liberty Digital Inc Cl A LOOK Looksmart Ltd LRCX Lam Research Corp LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Cp LVLT Level 3 Communications MCLD Mcleodusa Inc Cl A MFNX Metromedia Fiber Network MICC Millicom Internat Cel Sa MIHL Mih Limited Cl A MMXI Media Metrix Inc MSPG Mindspring Enterprises NETA Networks Associates Inc NIPNY Nec Corp NPNT Northpoint Comm Grp NTLI Ntl Communications Corp NTOP Net2phone Inc NTRO Netro Corporation NWAC Northwest Airlines Cl A NXLK Nextlink Commun Inc Cl A NXTL Nextel Communications A OMPT Omnipoint Corp OXHP Oxford Health Plans Inc PCLN Priceline.Com Inc. PRGN Peregrine Systems Inc PRSF Portal Software Inc PSFT Peoplesoft Inc PSIX Psinet Inc PTEL Powertel Inc PXCM Proxicom Inc QLTI Qlt Phototherapeutics RBAK Redback Networks Inc RCNC Rcn Corp RHAT Red Hat Inc RNWK Realnetworks Inc RTHM Rhythms Netconnections SCNT Scient Corporation SEEK Infoseek Corporation SEPR Sepracor Inc SKFR Skf Ab Adr SONE Security First Tech Corp SSCC Smurfit-Stone Container STMP Stamps.Com Inc STRM Starmedia Network Inc SWCM Software.Com TGNT Teligent Inc TIBX Tibco Software Inc TIWI Telesystem Intl Wireless TWRS Crown Castle Intl Corp TWSTY Telewest Comm Plc Adr TWTC Time Warner Telecom Inc UPCOY United Pan-Europe Nv Ads USWB Usweb Corp VERT Verticalnet Inc VIGN Vignette Corporation VRIO Verio Inc VRSN Verisign Inc VRTS Veritas Software Corp WCII Winstar Communications WCOM Mci Worldcom Inc WINK Wink Communications Inc WITC Wit Capital Corporation WWCA Western Wireless Corp A ZOOX Gadzoox Networks Inc