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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (27725)	9/28/1999 6:13:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, even the the spx is at very oversold level - 9 day rsi at 30, i find it extremely encouraging to the bear case that the bulls are going yippe yahoo after every snap back rally -g- and they keep saying this is the bottom. And going contrary over the general consensus "low rates, no inflation" that has been bandied about for a long time even as the trend has changed Bond futures have turned back down off a declining topsline. tfc-charts.w2d.com and the CRB sliced thru 206 resistance. On the contrary, as Les note about the daytrading book, maybe all the newbie mom and pop daytraders can hold up the dow at it's 200 day moving average -ggggg- and maybe everybody can just make 25% a year or more ad infinitum -g- bb

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (27725)	9/28/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, no doubt the CHANGE in NAZ P/E is worrisome. I would like it better if INDIVIDUAL valuations were addressed. Saying the market P/E is too high is unfair to the high percentage of stocks selling at depressed valuations. What would the NAZ P/E be if the internets were taken out? The nifty stocks? As we all know this is self-perpetuating because we like to buy stocks that go up. At least we can try to point at the problem in a more focused manner by naming names. Regards Gottfried

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (27725)	9/28/1999 6:20:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, What is very interesting is that due to the strong intraday rally, my short-term technicals for the DOW/SPX/NAZ are all already in the lower mid-range. I mentioned previously that it is common that prior to an important announcement it is common that my short-term technicals are in the mid-range, and that is based on statistical studies of my short-term technicals. Also it is subjectively understandable that prior to an important announcement that theres a bit of indecision. Per my short-term technicals, I consider the midrange as the indecision area. So if I am correct that my short-term technicals will be in the midrange by the FOMC meeting, then the upside from here should not be great since the 3 major indicies are already in the lower midrange. Just a tad more to the upside for my short-term technicals to be smack in the middle. Say about approximately another 100 DOW points should do it. There are still 4 more full trading days prior to the FOMC meeting, so what will happen till then? One possibility it that the market moves up a bit more so my short-term techs are smack in the middle, and then stay relatively flat till the FOMC meeting. Sure we could run up more or selloff more, but Im leaning more towards the position that whatever the market does in the next 4 days my short-term technicals should be in the mid-range by announcement time. And we are basicly there with just a bit more upside. seeya