<we're going to go up across the board,... a monster demand for gasoline...>
The fundamentals of supply & demand for Crude prices just won't be denied here... supply numbers are unbelieveable.
One factor that I see as a positive here; and that has me buying strongly; is that we have retraced nearly double what the overall market has; the OSX falling nearly 20% from its recent high and the DOW just 10% - and the 'Patch has much stronger fundamentals going forward than the overall market. Certainly; no one can deny that the OSX will outperform the DOW over the next 12 mos. ?!?!
Also; historically a 15-20% retrace has been the maximum range of a retrace leg in prior cycles. Given the Russian Collapse, Brazil, LTC, and the total market collapse last fall - that retrace in the OSX was only approx 25% - given the total Global collapse in Financial Markets - AND $8 OIL !!!!
Surely; into the face of the same basic valuations, much, much better fundamentals - the doubling of commodity prices and Global Markets certainly no where near the environment of last year - 20% seems overdone imho - and I see little risk of an "equal" retrace - leaving only another mere 5% retrace in the OSX here to equal last years catastrophic collapse...
I'll take both our near, mid & longterm reward vs. what I see as perhaps another 5% downside risk here...
I think that the next 10% DOW drop, if we see it - will also bring a great measure of sector rotation. I think the OSX will reverse its 2:1 decline % ration compared to the DOW; and now has a maximum 5% downside to another 10% DOW drop... and I think some issues - will turn positive from today; even on a further overall market drop; but most importantly; that drop will lead to a dramatic sector rotation into Oils.
We have stocks like GLBL today; that is now my largest single stock holding; end the day with blocks of 50,000,7500,5500,7000,5000,5000, 5000, 5000,5000,3,600, 6000 - all AFTER the close on an uptick !
OEI - I bought OEI heavilly today as well; as they are allready on record, stating that they will easily surpass Q3 estimates; they had blocks of 14,900 -10,000-10,000-50,000 and after the close an uptick with 15,000 - 7900.
Look at the 2-3 day charts for many OSX stocks; PGO did a complete turn around, BHI had 29,000 - 50,800 & 256,800 block buys at the close; SLB had buys of 28,700 - 70,500-6800-17,200-25,600 into the close.NE had 12,600 - 30,000 - 14,800 buys into the close etc.
Numerous stocks have made nice substantial turns from the bottom here.
This is a retrace to "fully invest" into - and to even margin leverage into, for those who are more risk oriented...
Bought:
GLBL - easiest double from here ? great acquisition.
MDR - best financial fundamentals, great growth niche, historically tooooooo cheap here...virtually each time ( 3x in 2 years) in the recent past that MDR has touched $19 - it has literally turn & ran to $30 - see the charts; it now has much higher earnings capacity than the 1997 cycle peak.
ESV - gave up $7 here from its high; that $7 on $17 is 40% from here ...
PGO - FPSO's are the key; when approved for the GOM - PGO becomes a $40 price target stock ($30 Now !).
OEI - allready on record to beating Q3 estimates; most undervalued offshore drilling portfolio in the Independant sector ?
UPR - like ESV- a hot stock, cooling quickly; really turning around here - easy 50% to $22 on the turn around coming sectorwide...an institutional fav' - many upgrades of late.
RRC - this has been very, very good to me; got lucky - sold it the day it hit $7 the last time; trimmed on the retrace and bought back heavy the last couple days.
...watching:
FLC - lots of profit still hanging out there; if we see continued pressure here; FLC is my pick - love it @$11's - $12; I'm still waiting on FLC - may miss it...
CAM/WFT - 2 MO-Mo fav's - core holds in any & all 'Patch Portfolio's.
Like EEX BNO & HEC, here as bottom fishing; speculative trading plays... EEX especially so; it has longterm upside that is not as risky as HEC, BNO. See HEC as an ultimate 50%+ bounce play; BNO as a buyout, or bounce play - well below break up value here; CEO's personal BK is overdone in the stock.
Praying for weakness in 2 fav's that have held well; HSE & ROIL, watching small caps CRK, MHR, PGEI for entries just a bit lower, Love -PXD at $8/9 becomes a gimmie...to $12-$15.
For those conservative buyers; RIG,BHI, HAL, MDR, BR, TLM, DVN,MRO are large caps with both solid fundamentals, substantial upside appreciation potential and little downside risk in proportion to their peers imho.
This is an anomaly... OSX retracing 2:1 to the overall market ? - price levels in many stocks back to March/April levels - given commodity prices and the much, much improved fundamentals and Cap Ex spending increases ?!?!?!?
- BUY IT ! |
