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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (8964)	9/29/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Kirk: Re: "Really? Didn't we poke around 8650 for some time last fall, then fell thru to 7500? The recovery back up went in pretty big jumps as you say. Guess I don't follow." Last Fall was not a short term correction. It was an intermediate term correction. My point is that the longer we hang around the bottom here, the better the chance for an intermediate term correction which is more than what we have now. If you look at the 1998 correction, you will see that the first leg down was from July to mid August. We tested the SPY bottom of about 106. It had all the appearances of a short term correction at first. We were down about 10% then. But a funny thing happened. We kept retesting -- not once, not twice but five times. On the fifth retest, the support failed and we went down for a second leg and an intermediate term correction into the high teens. One cannot dismiss the possibility that we are going through the same process now. If we get bad news or bad economic data, there is the strong possibility that we get an intermediate correction again. One has to put the odds of this now at 50/50%. But let's face one fact. Unless the financials rally, this market goes nowhere. They were a joke today even with the market in positive territory.

To: Kirk © who wrote (8964)	9/29/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk: re: < Maybe we could fall through present support again if any more "Balmerizations" occur. > I don't see the similarity between the current effects on the market of Balmer's WORDS, and last falls effects on the market of REAL EXOGENOUS EVENTS like the bailout of LT Capital Management Hedge Fund and the Russian currency devaluation. I'd agree that the market is very vulnerable to the occurrence of any real exogenous events, but I'd think Balmer type comments would only have a temporary effect on the market. P