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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (8966)	9/29/1999 4:26:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 15132

I2 re"If you were in the survey, would you vote as a "bull?" I probably would, but it's a close call" If I had to be pinned down right now I guess I would be a bear since I think even a rally back to the highs should it occur any more is likely to be followed by a bear with the other likelihood being we're already in the early stages of a bear. "There has been much talk about 1976. It seems that the current situation could also be compared to 1993/94. The Fed was increasing interest rates, much like now. Also, there was a long period of sideways movement in the market, which is also similar to what we've seen since May. What do you think?" Again I am only looking at 1976 in the context I believe Bob brought it up which is as example of a topping process which is similar to the recent market action and not in terms of any fundamentals. Your point about 93/94 though is well taken but I guess the fundamentals were different particularly in terms of valuation. The thing that disturbs me concerning this bear possibility is the market did indeed follow the 1976 pattern very closely. Could the move back toward the highs in Sept have been the final test and the only thing that didn't work out was the model signaling a sell? I don't know which is why I am playing it half way and am probably a little below 50% equities at the moment Marc