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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (68424)9/30/1999 11:43:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Henry,

>>No offense but I have little use for long term perspectives.<<

We are going to have to agree to disagree on this one.

I play horses well enough to make a small amount of money over the long haul. (25 years of research and experience etc...)

I know that if I try to pick the winner of a race I am sure to lose over the long haul even though I might be in the black for a time. The way to win is to find the good values. That often leads to losing streaks and being in the red. But over time the percentages, prices, and values come to the fore and I get into the black.

I think the same holds true for investing. I rarely know where the market is going or what my company will earn in the next quarter. I do know how Wall St will react if the news is bad.

If I believe they've overreacted because the business is still fundamentally sound and just having temporary difficulties I invest. Very often I am early and the stock remains weak because operating difficulties and cyclical downturns don't resolve themselves overnight. But as long as I am right about the longer term prospects, the company recovers, the stock price roars and I outperform.

I guess not having performance pressures allows me this comfort.

I am fairly certain though, that if I tried to time the turn in business exactly or get the bottom of the stock price, it would wind up costing me money because that's what everyone else is doing. Many of them brighter than I am and have access to better and more information.

"If you want to beat Bobby Fischer play him anything but chess!"

Wayne