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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Derivatives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (426)	9/30/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: Bob L	Respond to of 555

Yes, you caught me out. I'm not even considering the possibility of FDA decision before April any more. Just gone from my mind. The straddle doesn't make sense unless one is sure we will still be in FDA darkness right through April expiration. Which was my automatic assumption. FDA decision could happen before expiration, but filing by end of Oct would make 6 month deadline end of April. A negative decision or any decision by FDA much before the last day of the 6 month period seems really unlikely to me. And even filing by end of October would surprise me now. I'm not going to be surprised at all if June rolls around and we are still waiting for FDA for one reason or another. There was a remark by CLTR management somewhere that filing by the "end of the year" was their highest priority. That sounds about right. On the other hand, if the advisory committee says something even faintly negative in March or whenever they meet on this, I guess I'll be glad I'm just paper trading this one. That is a risk I forgot about for the moment.