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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (52238)	9/30/1999 11:48:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

RRC - 50 dma around 5 1/4. Upper end of long term down trend line around 5 1/4 too. I'd say a close around 5 1/2 would be pretty positive. A close during the next couple days of 5 3/4 or better would confirm the next leg up. Gary any comments?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (52238)	10/2/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

re: DLJ's Oilpatch call: not good news for FGI messages.yahoo.com I saw Garys link earlier; but did not call the number untill I saw the Yahoo post linked above. DLJ's analysis on the patch was very good. Certainly high expectations for the E&P's and valid points on how profitable these companies will still be at $17-$18 crude. What I did find nearly earth shattering was the statistic that just 2 years ago, or so; there were only 2 (?) Offshore Rigs/Drillships capable of drilling in over 7000 Ft of water; but due to the near historic "blip on the chart" New Build boom - there are now 31 ! - yes; 31 - thanks to 29 newbuilds... I think the yahoo article was correct (I didn't take notes on the specific #' - I called for the E&P news) but 4 without contracts; 10 with "farm out" arrangements available - ie: the Oil Co's want out... and how many other offshore rigs stacked ? I think I read somewhere that FLC has more offshore rigs stacked right now - than the historic average number off offshore rigs needing to be built... All of this emotional reaction to TheStreet.Com's expose~ articles on FGI are the very reason that the rich get richer and the emotional get "poorer"... Unless your "daddy" is JL Holloway, or you, or your family work at FGI - this emotional fanatacism in defending what many on wall street feel has been less than desireable corporate accountability is sad. I think Big Dog even suggested they should have - "told it all and told it early etc." Something about FGI of late that reminds me of Bill Clinton... the truth and the bad news just keep leaking out in small bits; and then - only when theStreet,Com or someone else shines the light on FGI's dark corners... Add to that HLX's own integrity issues and investigations and you have a real match made in heaven. I heard a joke about FGI the other day; someone said - "Maybe they'll clean up their act and post merger they'll hire John Gotti Jr. as their new IR rep and Wolfgang Puck as their CFO" ....(VBG) ? Again; no one questioned FGI's expertise in building rigs. No one questioned their tremendous growth & success. But; what many have questioned is their behavior and accountability of late; and most importantly they have questioned the "piece of the pie" that potentially exists for FGI in the near future. Given DLJ's statistics on the state of the Offshore Rig world, all the attempts at delays, cancellations, litigation and the farmouts available - not to mention the fleet of cold stacked rigs; how could "anyone" with a clue - see anything positive for the Offshore Rig Construction business in the near future ? And we wonder why FGI has 2.4+ Million Shorts ? Given that it appears we are now in the early stages of a potential multi-year Oilpatch boom; if you want to ride FGI down from $20 to sub $10; directly into the face of "doubles" literally everywhere in the Sector, I guess you must really be in it for the long haul... Now; we have retraced a bit; perhaps just the pause that refreshes; with subsectors like land & shallow water drillers & the E&P's poised to really run; and FGI shareholders remain vehemently, if not near hypnotically defensive of the "yard of choice"... Given; the glut of Offshore Rigs; what potential anyone sees in the coming 12 mos defies logic imho. FGI shareholders have watched their investment get cut in half while much of the sector doubled. Now as we are poised to perhaps start Boom 2000; maybe things will improve; as many see the rest of the oilpatch only perhaps moving 50% forward while FGI seems to tread water in a sea of deadmoney; perhaps at least partly from all the self inflicted wounds of late... Surely; the potential exists for FGI's shareprice to ultimately move up from here; but given the nearterm expectations for the rest of the sector as opposed to the apparant Offshore Rig Glut per DLJ's commentary; it certainly looks to me that the rest of the Sector remains poised to continue to significantly outperform FGI. Well; I guess the "Blame Game" will continue. Surely FGI is less than its original IPO price, 1/4th of its former highs, 1/2 of its 52 week high and now sub $10 - closing in on an alltime low; while the rest of the Oilpatch is poised for Boom 2000 because of that National Enquireresque TheStreet.Com, or because of all those immoral short traders, or all those nasty comments from those manipulative internet posters... it has to be; as it certainly doesn't have anything to do will all those stacked offshore Rigs does it ? and it certainly couldn't be because they failed to "tell it all & tell it early" - now could it ? The good news; is that FGI will certainly get an "emotional" pop if nothing else from the road show; the question will be; how many will see this and use it as an exit opportunity to stop their personal portfolio bleeding...? I'll be trading it long; then looking for another shorting opportunity... it's a stock, it's not family, it's not the home team... and from what I've read... it's hardly deserving of anyone's fanatical defense. Maybe this will help drive home the point: a reality check. siliconinvestor.com DLJ call on Oil--dial 1-800-642-1687; enter #777017