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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (7330)	10/2/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

tekboy, It's CTXS that is most interesting of all, however. It goes up incredibly over the 30 month period, but in a steady line with no obvious break. This suggests to me that CTXS has NOT YET CROSSED THE CHASM IN THE PERCEPTUAL GG. If and when Merlin, LL and others can assure us that is has done so in the fundamentalist GG, it should be a fantastic investment, because if history is any guide, once its primate status is popularly perceived the chart should ramp up steeply. I can assure you that the product has crossed the chasm, though I came to that realization only in the past couple of weeks, thanks to Citrix's dreadful PR department. There are 15 million end users of the product and 98 of the Fortune 100 companies use it. Does this make any sense? Yes, but in my mind the evidence pointing toward the viability of a perceptual strategy is still anecdotal, not empirical. --Mike Buckley

To: tekboy who wrote (7330)	10/2/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: rel4490	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 54805

re: perceptual GG I think that you have stumbled onto a very important investment corollary to GG analysis. It takes both a fundamental crossing of the chasm and a perceptual crossing by the market for the stock to react. The two crossings probably never occur at the same time. Merlin believes that the fundamental crossing for the Q took place a full year before the perceptual crossing. The market required a Defining Event ( the litigation settlement) before reacting. Sometimes the perceptual crossing takes place before the fundamental crossing. Perfect Rambus Analysis? Perhaps this means that it is prudent to modify GG investment theory by taking a more aggressive stock position when the market is waiting for a Defining Event( Q pre 4/1999; Gemstar pre settlement) and take no stock position when the market has already assumed the crossing before it has happened ( Rambus).