Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (28239)	10/3/1999 7:16:00 AM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

To All: Correction to the post I am responding to...the following paragraph should have include the words " will not"... I am not saying that we "will not" see some more upside for the major equity indexes, but from this point forward, the risk to reward ration is high. I know many that read MDA are day/swing traders and it will be very hard to stay out of the Market. I would recommend reducing equity exposure in long and medium term investments and reducing day trading portfolios to speculation monies. Regards, LG

To: HairBall who wrote (28239)	10/3/1999 9:32:00 AM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

LG: "The launch of the major equity indexes in Oct 98 illustrated by my OMC Index (I believe was the beginning of a blow off move) lead to a Dec 98 break above the OMC's multi-decade rising trading channel" This has been my opinion for a while. Just like we have been in a 17 to 18 month bear market that no one has noticed (or at least acted on), we have HAD the blow-off already. Not only from the Oct 98 bottom, but the bigger blow-off from 1995 to present. 1995 was when the volume began to soar which must be present in a blow-off. In other words, I think the first "wave" if you will of the blow-off began in 1995, and the Oct 98 to July move was the last wave. We'll see.

To: HairBall who wrote (28239)	10/3/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Wouldn't you think that some out of the money puts would provide cheap insurance to holder of longs without having to necessarily bet the farm on selling medium term longs in the face of a possible major up-move? Something that scares me more than a major up or down move, is the continuing of no move. Nobody is prepared for that scenario. Traders are nearly as willing to go short the market as they are long, but what do you do when the market sits in this stinking trade range and money remains on the side? I guess we could all write option spreads, but then what if the big move happened? Write option spreads with large out of the money long wings? There really is no good way to play a flat market. IMO Matt PS: Thanks for all the work on this thread. The only negative of this thread is that it has so much good content it takes a lot of time just to stay current! Good problem to have.