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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (41933)10/3/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 116759
 
lol I have plenty of questions as well.

What would turn me bullish on bonds? A combination of several things probably. A severe stock market correction or prolonged sideways actions would be one. It is my opinion that one of the reasons that bonds are trading with such high apparent real rates of return is market expectations of stock market returns are to high. In other words bond yields need to be higher just to keep the asset class competitive with equity expectations.

Another thing would be a reduction in the amount of debt corporations are issuing. The corporate bond calendar is offsetting much of the reduced government borrowing.

An economic or political crisis overseas which would raise fears and send people scurrying for the safety of US bonds i.e. what used to drive people towards gold (that should get a few comments -g-).

btw allowing foreign workers in to fill tech jobs would probably dampen wage pressures (increased supply). the need to do so would indicate the pressure was already there, which it is fwiw. Try hiring a techie, very tight market. I have an investment in a private software company that has two administrative employees in the US and outsources all it's programming to foreign locales.

Henry