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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (7621)	10/5/1999 7:54:00 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Thought people might find the following post from the Fool's Gemstar board interesting. The poster is from nowheresville, Lithuania--gotta love globalization! tekboy PS my wife says gorillas can't swim Subject: Price drop Date: 10/5/99 12:45 PM ÿ Author: Staska I think there is good reason for the Gemstar to go down a litlle bit. Hey it was somewhere around 60 in mid September and at 86 yesterday. That's 43% in less then 3 weeks. So what gives? Traders: We want to make some quick profit. We know GMST and in mid September we feel that the end of litigation with TVGIA is near. There are a lot of rumours flying and some analysts saying that. So we do our DD and decide that GMST will walk as a winner with some fee for the license of technology and also some part of revenues of TVGIA. This will prove the strength of the GMST position and provide more certainty that most of its patents are infringible. The stock will take off and fly to the moon and then we will have 15 Billion company very soon. We bid up the price 43 % in just 3 weeks waiting for the news. Well, the news comes but it's not a settlement - it's a merger! We get a 20 billion company for two companies which are worth 12B together and 600M in debt. The short term upside potential is gone a huge share dilution is pending, so what we do? We bail out as soon as we can, the price gets back where it was in mid September. LTBH investors: We examine fundamentals and business model of our company and buy. We see that it has a sustainable advantage and patent protection over its competitors. We see the litigation with TVGIA and others, and after some DD we decide that there is a very big chance that GMST will walk a winner from all of these, and continue to grow. We hold. We think that no matter what happens GMST will continue to be the leader in IPG field with significant part of all kinds of revenues here. The main competitor is TVGIA and it seems it will give part of its revenue to GMST. Great! We hold. We see the end of the litigation is near and the price starts to take off. We hold and feel very happy about it. The news comes out as a huge surprise. It's not a settlement ? it's a merger! Who could imagine this? What a surprise! How rulebreaking.! Then the price plummets. What do we do? We start looking into the deal and the impact of the merger for the company. What kind of company we just got ? Well we got actual monopoly in IPG market which is just about to take off. We got no significant competition and huge barriers of entry for any possible competitor both from delivery, content, advertising and hardware side. We got deals with main consumer electronics producers, main media, software and Internet companies, main cable operators. Up to now some companies were saying O.K. we will incorporate your technology and pay a small fee from revenues but we still can use other technologies. What other technologies? TV Guide, of course. And now they got no other to use but us. How can we loose? So we hold on and if we have money we buy more. Hope that will help someone to hold on tight.. Fool on!

To: Eric L who wrote (7621)	10/5/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

>> Gorillas can, can't they? Gorillas can do whatever they want! I am pumped tonight; I went to the Cisco vendor award meeting today, and John Chambers was the keynote speaker. The man is awesome. He didn't just stand of the stage - he worked the crowd. Stood not 10 feet away from me (I was in the 3rd row <g>), looked me in the eye (well, in my general direction), and said "It (the internet) changes EVERYTHING!" I almost jumped out of my seat and yelled, *Hallelujah!* Eric, I believe the man's vision, and will be back into csco in the next 60 days. After hearing JC and his team, I'm convinced that the Cisco Era is in its infancy. uf