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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (74426)	10/7/1999 2:01:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1572630

<Chuck, RDM, Kash, your assessment on CC?> Frankly, it was some good, some bad and some ugly. The good parts are: - 0.18 status - Selling off the comms division (I was saying this should happen about a while back around the time of Vantis sale if my memory serves me right). If the current market conditions in the comms business persist this should get at least 4x sales. Should be a sweetheart deal. - Athlon ASPs and confirmation of "downbinning" Athlons - Jerry not dumping on Intel (this was a pleasent call to hear and I would expect some analysts to feel the same way) The bad parts are: - Lower than expected loss but still a loss - Dresden is almost three quarters away. Serious cash drain. Good that Mot is at the table. - Motherboard situation was worse than I thought it was. Its a shame that they couldn't ship the other 100-150k units. The ugly part was: - K6 sales are terrible - little benefit from Intel missteps (this I think is the truly bad news w.r.t. marketing/sales savvy - I don't see the killer instinct here) Areas of concern going forward: - Athlon ASPs may go lower faster than the management suspects. I find $300 unsustainable. We are probably going down to $250 in Q4 and $200 in Q1 unless there is a good mix of Ultras and Pros. (interestingly there were no questions in this area) - Flash numbers are a little lighter than I thought they would be - Comms numbers show no growth! There was talk of increased line card shipments (which I was expecting) but looks like that was negated by drop in Ethernet revenues (ASPs probably) P.S.: I would like to hear from process guys why it would take AMD 3 quarters for to go into production if they already have working K7 from the fab. Why so long?

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (74426)	10/7/1999 7:26:00 AM
From: RDM	Respond to of 1572630

Yougang: I just listened to the CC. It appears that AMD is on track for 800,000 Athlons in Q4 and 1.3M in Q1 next year. At 1.3M with a .250 ASP they should be profitable in Q1 while Q4 will reduce loss but be a stretch for profit. I think CC is a good indicator of improving conditions for AMD during the next several quarters. I would hope the price will move a some on this news but I am not holding my breadth since the timing of pricing changes are difficult to predict closely. , RDM