Uh oh...Milesov and I get to talking some funnymentals. All disclaimers apply...
Tiric: You got KLAC on your list?
alesisgb: nope
Tiric: You got room for it on your list?
alesisgb: spent the last hour or so browsing for new pc
alesisgb: i dunno, list is pretty full, lol
alesisgb: whats yer take on dish?
Tiric: ABTE possible breakaway gap.
New PC? uh oh...I'n gonna fall way behind the technological curve
alesisgb: yeah, what a clusterfukk, i barely know what i'm looking at anymore
alesisgb: but wanna go at least dual monitors
Tiric: Well, first off, DISH was a screaming buy about 14 months ago...I didn't get it.
alesisgb: yeah, we caught it around 70, b4 the split, so price now would be around 200
Tiric: I'd say that it's got the type of trend that you only buy into when it hits or dips below the 50 dMA
alesisgb: just found a post on the thread dated in may, with ptel at 25, to keep an eye on it, lol
Tiric: ack
alesisgb: i bought the bo today, the cci's i'm lookin at are showing cooked, but there were several instances on several different indicators where the stock moved up as indicators moved down...cci included
Tiric: Since alot of that stuff is momentum oriented, a stock can easily move up into a technical downturn. Sometimes you get a good reset that way.
Tiric: I'd still only consider it at the 50 dMA.
alesisgb: yeah, but it doesn't give me a good way to pick an exit
Tiric: How about a scan for stocks up 50% or more in the last 54 days that are at or 10% below their 50 dMA.
Tiric: The exit is a trailing stop kinda thing. Or a trendline stop. Or just take 15 to 20%
alesisgb: you think there are any?
Tiric: I think there are alot
alesisgb: you lookin for shorts?
Tiric: Well...enough, anyway
Tiric: No...the best place to buy a solid uptrend is to nail it on a dip to or below the 50 dMA
Tiric: Look at the last best place to buy PTEL
alesisgb: yeah, i've seen that often
Tiric: It's a lot like the triple screen approach
Tiric: Long term strength...intermediate term weakness...get it on a bunch of short term xovers with increasing volume over the previous few days
alesisgb: looks like s and p gonna make a run at that downtrendline tomorrow
alesisgb: 13rsi looks like a downtrend bo
Tiric: You could write one for 50% or more up over 54 days with certain short term xovers after dropping under the 50 dMA. Make sure the 233, 21, 34 and 89, 3, 5 has stayed over 60 during the dip
alesisgb: 233 is otta the question
Tiric: The market's still in correction mode. One or two good looking up days aren't going to turn
Tiric: What was that set of parameters on the weekly that we found to shadow 233?
alesisgb: i'm beginning to think the bears had every opportunity to crush the mkt at this point and have failed
alesisgb: 55 i think
Tiric: Still below the downtrend line....right?
alesisgb: true
alesisgb: but shoulda never made it back over the neckline
Tiric: Even a bit over the downtrend line isn't really enough
Tiric: It's seeing divergence on a double bottom or making a higher low that leads to a higher local high that carries some weight
Tiric: Same situation gold is in right now.
alesisgb: if 8-10 was a possible dbl btm...there's divergence in the 4.3.2
alesisgb: macd divergence
Tiric: A good double bottom on an index usually takes at least 3 weeks. I can't help but remain skeptical of this little rally so far
alesisgb: 8-10...9-30ish does fit that bill...
alesisgb: but yeah, the dt bo is still the issue
Tiric: The real relationship to watch right now is dollar/yen and gold. If dollar/yen flatlines and gold confirms an uptrend...look out.
If dollar/yen improves and gold flatlines...buy stocks.
alesisgb: yeah, i've noticed the dollar/yen deal now over the past few weeks, i think we talked about it once b4 or maybe i mentioned it in one of the rooms
Tiric: What the market is watching here is whether or not the fed has fallen behind the curve on inflation by not raising rates
Tiric: If that is true, dollar deniminated unstruments will be extremely unappealing to foreign investors
alesisgb: wish they woulda raised after he just changed the bias...
Tiric: Yikes...spelling fart
alesisgb: was just thinkin that
alesisgb: as long as he controls the threat of raising, he controls the mkt...beginning to think he gets off on that
alesisgb: once he raises...the mkt is free
Tiric: There occaisionally comes times when foreign participation becomes central to the market. The last 10 months has been that way and it will likely stay that way for at least this month
alesisgb: have you considered the fact that if they are printing money for y2k speculation, that raising the rates becomes a contradiction...
Tiric: THEN....there's the historical weight behind market performance after 3 rate increases with no intervening decrease. 3 consecutive rate increases has always been taken to be the start of a long-term trend toward higher rates. Kills the market every time.
Tiric: Raising rates into higher M2 and M3 IS a bit contrary...yep.
Tiric: Create the cash and then hold it back with higher rates makes little sense.
alesisgb: yep
alesisgb: in that case, after y2k fear is over...the actual hike wouldn't come until some time next year, for some reason i tend to think it would be feb as opposed to jan
alesisgb: then tightening would fit into the monetary policy of y2k
alesisgb: probably feb, cuz by that time...everyone who took money out, will be putting it back
Tiric: There is still room for rates to go higher and still let the economy grow.
Tiric: But 3 in a row has always been a solid sell signal.
alesisgb: i think jan will be too early to tighten
alesisgb: so really his bias change to me is his attempt to scare mkts...again
Tiric: IThey really have to be sure that inflation is a concern to raise rates a 3rd time. And a 3rd increase is also a sign that monetary policy is behind the curve.
alesisgb: well, they're gonna hafta take that money back somehow...economy or not methinks
Tiric: Just as a 3rd decrease works the other way. It was a 3rd decrease in 95 that kicked things into high gear.
Tiric: The question is...are things really different here? Is the economic dynamic so positively skewed due to demographics that a 3rd hike would only create a killer buying opportunity?
alesisgb: my guess is 3rd hike in feb...for monetary purposes, followed by weak 2 to 3 months, then realization that economy is solid and then summer rally
Tiric: If so, what you say means the market sucks for another 9 months
Tiric: I think things are moving too fast to take that long
alesisgb: i think once nov goes by and there is no hike, then mkts wake up a bit thru end of january
alesisgb: as they realize when the hike should actually occur
alesisgb: most will then speculate jan for sure, but my guess is that it will be too soon at that time
Tiric: It depends on the econ #s that come out the the fed for a while. Strength will cause selloffs and weakess will cause rallies. There's the possibility of some really nasty whipsaw activity for a while.
Tiric: meet me out back for a smoke
alesisgb: yeah, but if he don't move in nov...there's no way in hell imo that he'll move in dec...
alesisgb: k
alesisgb: december will begin the time the money will begin being withdrawn for cash on hand y2k situation...that would be the most irrational time to move, including y2k fear itself
alesisgb: i'm curious when that january meeting is...the closer it is to the beginning of the month, the more likely any move would occur in feb
Tiric: I think anticipation of a post Y2K run in the market will absorb any selling and may even peoduce a very strong Nov thru Jan rally.
alesisgb: that's kinda the way i'm working this out in my head now with when they should react, if they need to...
Tiric: I'm kinda even taking today's activity as the first hint of confirmation of that
Tiric: It's actually part of my thinking that we've hit the first bottom of a double bottom already and 3 weeks from now we'll see the second bottom. It'll be lower than the recent one. Probably take out 10K for a day or 2. Then...zoom.
Tiric: Today's move was some of the "smart" money getting a start on their position
Tiric: Not a really convincing move but the volume was indicative.
alesisgb: there are some technical divergences already off this low
alesisgb: have you extended the triangle formation on price yet for the s and p? when it intersects?
Tiric: But the technical activity is still too early into a weak cycle for anything to get seriously upsideish yet
Tiric: You know that once the indicators look like they do now, there's some noodling to be done.
alesisgb: i'm just surprised to actually find the divergences evident myself...wouldn't have "thunk" it...
alesisgb: the macd is pretty clear
Tiric: 3 weeks
alesisgb: figgers, lol
Tiric: Even though things are moving faster all the time, the markets are larger than ever and still carry a good amount of "mud factor" A wave created in a pool of mud moves slower than a wave in water. Individual stocks move like water. The market still moves like mud even tnhough it's much thinner mud than it used to be.
alesisgb: yeah, speed of corrections is prolly good evidence
Tiric: The one best trend to pay attention to is market volatility. As long as volatility is increasing, the bull market is still alive. There's an "insane" level of volatility on blowoff tops but that's easily recognized. So if the market's going to slowly roll over and die, long term volatility will start looking like a sick 13,8,8. If the top is a blowoff, you'll know it. Either way, there's really only 2 ways to top.
Tiric: A head & shoulders top is a great example of how volatility goes into sell mode. The right shoulder usually creates a downward acceleration on a volatility chart
Tiric: So...if you look at the S&P in terms of volatility, knowing that we're looking at an honest to god head and shoulders here, you would conclude that if the vix goes into a downward acceleration on the next pullback, 10K is coming soon.
Tiric: like...3 weeks
alesisgb: ok, here's the milesov special edition...tomorrow we test the dt line...friday if the numbers are good we bo, following next week with a run to 1380s with some positive earnings news, spend the following week back to retest the bo possibly even lose it into fed meeting
Tiric: 1380's?????? Wait a minute...is that you Instock?
Tiric: lol
Tiric: This month?
alesisgb: hafta see when the other cpi and ppi are...
Tiric: Prices are going up but mortgage applications fell off sharply from Sept a year ago.
Tiric: down 80%
Tiric: that's huge
alesisgb: ppi is the 15th...
alesisgb: good number friday, bo with earnings focus
Tiric: that represents the possibility of real economic slowness 6 to 9 months from now if it continues like that.
alesisgb: cpi is the 19th
alesisgb: econ slowness will be beneficial
alesisgb: we could spend the good part of next week on the + side with favorable number this friday
Tiric: Home buying is the single best forward looking gauge of the economy. Interest rates will have to come down if the mtge. app #'s stay weak for a few months.
alesisgb: they'll prolly get weak as well based on season
Tiric: It'll take nearly a year to affect interest rates
Tiric: Maybe 9 months...but people are in max spending mode when they're getting mortgages. If spending in that layer of the economy has dropped 80% Sept to Sept...that's kinda large.
alesisgb: yep
Tiric: I'm sure it got greenspan's attention
alesisgb: yep, he's trying to keep thumb on mkt...that's my opinion and i'm stikkin 2 it, :P
alesisgb: ok, post this shit...i'm ready for bed, lol |
