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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (7798)	10/7/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: Ritch	Respond to of 54805

tekboy - PS if someone could tell me how to bold or italicize words I could stop SHOUTING.... To use italics, start the phrase with a "<" then an "i" then a ">" without the quotes (this means start italics). To stop italics, end the phrase with "<" then "/" then "i" then ">". (Should not be any spaces between these characters). To bold an item, change the "i" to a "b". Ritch

To: tekboy who wrote (7798)	10/7/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: Curbstone	Respond to of 54805

Easy enough, but instead of using the soft parenthesis use the sharper ones (capital . and capital ,) (i)stop shouting(/i) substitute b for i for bold

To: tekboy who wrote (7798)	10/7/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Tekboy, we have a fundamental agreement about the value of "timing" plays. I know you've had some very positive experiences in that arena lately, but I contend it can't be done with any degree of reliability over time. Imo, delaying or accelerating a Gorilla investment based on a timing model will hurt you as often as it will help you. Believing this, I've personally abandoned timing as a Gorilla gaming tool. I'll look forward to hearing about your personal results in the future. But I might suggest that you would do better to focus on technical analysis as opposed to Gorilla hunting methodology if you feel timing is a critical to your portfolio's health. uf

To: tekboy who wrote (7798)	10/7/1999 1:17:00 PM
From: Eric Jacobson	Respond to of 54805

tekboy, clearly you are right...buying a gorilla when it or the market as a whole is temporarily out of favor results in better returns than "random" purchases. However, I've come to the conclusion that I and many people can't possibly correctly time purchases of even gorillas. The reason is FUD - fear, uncertainty, and doubt - set in exactly at the moment a stock is falling and a "buying opportunity" presents itself. We become fearful that some fundamental underpinning of the stock has been damaged, or uncertain whether the stock will go even lower - the fear of trying to catch the falling knife. GMST over the past two weeks is the perfect case study. The stock drops sharply, and many of the really sharp people who frequent this thread reached different conclusions about the situation. Some decided it was a buying opportunity. Some decided they needed more time to evaluate the situation. And others felt the stock would go lower or sideways for a lot longer, giving them a longer window or better opportunity with which to buy in. In the meantime, the stock dipped to around $65 and is now over $75. On the flip side, the other reason I think trying to time buying even a gorilla is problematic is that once the "buying opportunity" passes, many people conclude that they missed the window and now that the stock has recovered, it's too expensive. Again, FUD sets in - is it too expensive now? Did I miss my chance? Will it dip again? Should I wait until the next "buying opportunity?" In the meantime, the stock might zoom up 10 or 50 percent. This is probably the biggest mistake someone can make, especially if you believe the stock is going much higher in the long term. So, if you believe QCOM or GMST are going a lot higher, sure, buying on the dips will result in better returns than buying randomly, or when it's making new highs. But you have to be able to overcome FUD when the stock is dipping, and this is hard even with a gorilla.