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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67206)	10/7/1999 7:43:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

heinz, My P&F charts show lots of oil stocks which have crushed their support lines or are just barely hanging on to them. A quick rundown shows Oct. Oil very overbought in the midst of a pullback with support down at 20/21, OIX sitting on support with 282 as critical IMO, and OSX already down to 68 from 91 either basing right now or preparing for another fall. We both have different opinions on the subject and that's cool, no hard feelings. The point which I was trying to make, unsuccessfully, was that if the oil price really starts to retreat, we could have WS and the FED telling us inflation is dead again and we're ready for the next rate cut. Not good when we all now that inflation is real and is not being reflected accurately. i wouldn't call the pullback in oil a 'breakdown' re: Commodity Pricing The problem with all this resurgence of growth around the globe is it's tough to say whether or not it's attributed to some sort of stockpiling due to Y2K fears. There have been enough articles quoting oil cos. and other commodity producers stating they planned to stock extra materials in the event Y2K probelms did play themselves out. For me personally, I'll wait till the spring to see if this growth is for real or not. Y2K could pass and not bring a single disruption and then what do all these cos. who stockpiled do? Flood the market with tons of oversupply which kill their pricing power??? Tough to answer all these questions until Jan. comes and goes and we see the real story. no way are commodities going to seriously pull back with economies around the world showing accelerating growth... Regards, Nick