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Non-Tech : Charles Schwab (SCH) -- A tech-stock profile? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe S Pack who wrote (931)	10/9/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: Typhoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1390

Six of one, a half dozen of the other. Last weekend I was making enemies on this thread faster than Pat Buchanan as he threatened to switch to the reform party. So after describing in my iritating style, why I thought SCH was not a buy, and in fact, a good potential short candidate, I remain of the same mind. After a good week in the stock market, I was pleasantly surprised to find a MSDW analyst attack the valuation case for online brokers, SCH, and brokers in general. As I understand it, the analyst argues that the value of commission revenues is zero and the business models of these companies are completely vulnerable. I think he is right. My arguement, had to do with my sense that we are in a market that is at risk, and characterised by many bubble stocks which will unwind bringing a painful dose of reality to millions of technology empowered novice investors. As this scenario plays out, market activity at these brokers will fall off a cliff as the four year streak in the market and the internet boomlet reverse direction, and loses will suddenly become the rule in stark contrast to the last four years of easy money in the stockmarket. I think I may be right. I also think the MSDW analyst's arguement is dead on. Consequently, I remain concerned that SCH and on line brokers are among the most risky and overvalued stocks in the market, and represent speculative excess as gross as any multibillion dollar internet concept that is a long way from earning its first dollar. It seems to me that the market could push higher for another two weeks, as strong earnings momentum is reported. But should stocks start selling off into good earnings as they did in July, then puts or shorts on SCH, AMTD, EGRP or MER may be the best way to hedge as we enter the new millenium IMHO. The grisly, bad news, bad person guy-Typhoon Disclosure- I own 50 SCH Nov 30 puts. eg I have a financial interest in seeing Schwab decline, although I do not believe my postings have any impact on these stocks.