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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (67619)	10/9/1999 9:20:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Terry, >>>> My friend, who has been in the real estate biz in this area for the last 30 years told me once- There's been more money lost in real estate speculation than everything else combined. I believe him. <<<< I believe it was in the early 90's, and one friend I knew bought a small house in LONG ISLAND for about 200,000 only to have drop in value to about 140,000 the next year, and for job reasons he could not stay to ride it out. Another friend bought a condo for 75,000 about the same time and sold it for 40,000 3 years ago. Many feel that real estate just continues up, and that was my parents belief back in the 50's, but as in all things in nature there are cycles. seeya

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (67619)	10/9/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Terry, I have several friends who work in commercial real estate here in Indianapolis, and they tell me that the market topped last summer. The lower interest rates of late '98 - early '99 only fueled activity in the residential sector of the real estate market. What you are seeing down south is happening here as well - lots of construction going on... and yet I pass two large, mostly empty office buildings in my 20 min. drive to work. There is simply too much existing (not to mention planned) capacity. AA

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (67619)	10/9/1999 11:37:00 AM
From: Ken98	Respond to of 86076

Terry, in Dallas there is roughly 10 million SF of multi-tenant office space coming on-line in the second half of 99 and the first half of next year. Net multi-tenant absorption for the first half of 99 was around 500,000 SF (1.2M SF for 1998). That, of course, equates to at least a 10 year supply of office space assuming current absorption rates in this strong economy. The figures in the other "hot" markets of a couple of years ago like Houston and Atlanta are similar I understand. In addition, there are around 300+ high-rise condos being built near my office priced at $350K+ (most higher), all being completed in the next 4-6 months. I know this is not a lot by NY standards but it IS a lot by local standards. Any bets about the sales rates in those projects if the market heads south? Lastly, many people would be surprised to learn that FNMA has stepped up its activity in the commercial multi-family lending market and is one of the more active multi-family lenders at the peak of the cycle. Not a role most would envision for FNMA. And your friend is correct about people losing money in the real estate business, but a lot of people have made fortunes in it. Its all a matter of timing the cycle. But every cycle brings a new set of players and new set of lenders, most of whom forget that real estate is a VERY cyclical business. Have a good weekend, Ken.