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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RWS who wrote (52726)	10/9/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

<<This message is for entertainment purposes only.>> When I want entertainment like that, I'll just chew my arm off. <g> After seeing the carnage last year, I wouldn't discount any scenario. I think the underlying fundamentals have great potential, although OPEC (or one or two rogue members) could easily, and overnight, turn those fundamentals upside down. But I also feel that fundamentals don't necessarily drive stock prices. If they did, then someone should explain to me how the fundamentals of another cyclical stock, which has been losing money throughout the peak of its business cycle, justify a stock price of $70/share (MU, of course). I have a couple of questions, though. And please keep in mind that the only things I know of EW are what I've picked up from Gary's posts and a few web sites I've skimmed. First, it seems as though you see the entire move down from late '97 to late '98 as a single wave (A). But it seems there was a pretty strong move down during the last Q of '97, followed by a pretty strong move up during the first Q '98. Why wouldn't that have constituted A and B (followed by C, which was the big decline from April '98 to October '98)? Second, if you look at the weekly charts, it looks like there were 5 waves down from the peak of late '97. When do you rely on the monthly as opposed to the weekly charts? Third, since the trend of service stocks, to a great extent, follows the price of oil, do you see the same pattern for crude? Thanks in advance. While my intention has been to hold for the long haul, I'm not so stubborn as to question my position from time to time. And I recall how many people during the summer of 98 were convinced with each little blip in the OSX that the bottom was in, and that each day was another buying opportunity. If I didn't learn anything from that experience, I should have my brokerage account closed.