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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29187)	10/9/1999 10:38:00 PM
From: WTMHouston	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

I almost feel silly posting this... I am sure that this has some meaning. I am equally sure that I am not the only one who has no clue what this means.... <<Now a dog before a hanging bastard or a cat getting screwed in front of singing crows>> I (generally) subscribe to the school that the only dumb questions are the ones not asked. Maybe I just missed the day in school where they taught the lesson quoted above...<g> I also have this feeling in the pit of my gut that I may feel even sillier when I hear the answer. But, at the risk of embarrassing myself, what does it mean? Is my curiosity going to kill this cat? Thanks in advance. Troy

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29187)	10/10/1999 9:19:00 AM
From: fourptt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Ike...I've recently (thur-fri) purchased some nov+jan ibm 120 calls....do you have any opinions on the stock? the position? Thanks as always.....Nelson

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29187)	10/10/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: Skywatcher	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Fleming analyst says Dow set for 2-year bear phase By Elaine Hardcastle LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Dow Jones's twelve-year bull run is over and during the next two years the index could drop as much as 38 percent, investment bank Jardine Fleming's technical analyst said on Friday. ''The bull market has run its course and we are in the first corrective wave,' said Naoyuki Fujihara in a note. ''We do not expect the market to be attractive for the next two years.' Fujihara's analysis of the market since 1929 uses Elliott theory to measure waves in market movements and to predict a turning point in the trend. His research concludes that the Dow's bull market terminated on 24 August when the index hit 11,365 after a rise of 600 percent since the 1987 post-Black Monday low of 1,616. The analyst said the market is now in a corrective phase characterised by the emergence of doubters building opposing investment positions. As confidence ebbs, investors increasingly seek quick gains. Over the last few weeks the U.S. index has been dragged some seven percent from its August 24 peak to stand currently at 10,537. The market has been hampered by fears of rising interest rates. U.S. policy makers left interest rates on hold on Tuesday but attention switched immediately to employment data due later on Friday and the fear that inflationary pressures would prompt a rate hike in November which could trigger a sharp downturn in share prices. Fujihara expects the Dow Jones to fall around 15 percent over the next three months, taking the index back to test the 8,914 level. The analyst said a rebound from oversold levels could cause a brief recovery back to the 10,000 marker but he warns that the downward trend will reassert itself and will last for two years. ''...an additional correction is expected to continue until 2001, with a gradual fall taking the market down to 6,490,' he said, targeting a 38 percent drop from current levels. ''In the 15-year cycle the market rises for 12-13 years then corrects for two to three years. We expect the bull trend that started in 1987 to terminate this year.' chris fyi only...not buying into this arguement... Still high on IATV...keep watching NPTN bought in at 20 on Thursday...DSL LONG WAY TO GO and this one has a great double bottom and a low since IPO...check out comparison with COVD

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29187)	10/23/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Suresh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Ike, thanks for the response. Couple of things; 1) Productivity increase in high tech companies --- Actually if you consider option grants for employees these companies would be cash flow negative... including the mighty MSFT. 2) PEG: When I started investing in 96... I used to sell when the ratio reached 1.5. I am not afraid of buying companies with a PE of 1000 or higher if the growth is 1000 or higher (not the immediate year... but the year after). Now a days it is very rare to find good growth companies at a reasonable PEG. So, I am just a trader and not an investor. I think ratio above 1.5 is absurd. What about you ? When I have time, I will try to plot PEG ratio time shifted to see how it looks for companies like NOK, CSCO etc. >if the same technological change would have come in the auto industry, > they would be able to create a car that travels at the speed of >sound, runs 600 miles on a thimble of gasoline and costs less than >US $ 2 Yep.... and it could be failing/crashing badly every other day without any reason... Sorry no reboot for life as we know it yet... everything has its limits. To think everything (concept, field) should be evaluated with the same set of mind is ridiculous (if I understand your line of thinking about W.Buffett... you are saying same thing) >WB: HIM AS PROPHET OF INVESTEMNT Nope... I don't think anyone would think like that but I surely think that he is a master in his field. I would have loved him more had he invested in tech stocks but I have no complaints holding his stock. I like the diversification. Just think about this.... if every one had 100% of their investment in technology what would have happened to the rest of industry/economy? I don't want to guess the ramifications of such an attitude. > Only 35% has used phones.. More than 50% still lack the basic necessity of life. We have very long time to go before everyone could afford phone. It would be a miracle if we can decrease the poverty at the rate of technology growth. > wage inflation is dead Are you sure about this..... ? It is present in high techs... but in a different form called ESOP. I don't think the business model of YHOO or AMZN is suspect... but I question the valuation. With all my valuation reservation I still invest(rather trade) in companies like VIGN, AGIL, PHCM etc... As they say "To be successful in trading the market one has to be as intelligent or dumb as the market". Or as I heard on TV other day "why do you complain that only few stocks are going up while others are going down? Just invest in those companies which are going up and you will be fine". Regards, Suresh