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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67678)	10/10/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Hienz, I realize the market is thin and internals look like shit, but suspect things will now continue up with everyone having jumped the unload gun earlier every year. It is true that money inflows should dry up a bit as 401(k)s are getting maxed out and those contributions stop. But it seems in the last few years that people just kick in non deductible free cash once they are convinced the end of year tax loss selling is over. You are guaranteed 30% on it, after all. -s- Tax loss selling is a fact, the specific issue is 31 October for funds. It is bullshit unless the fund has that as the end of their fiscal year. (Although, there may be an issue of funds trying to front run expected tax related selling from a timing/price standpoint rather than true tax date.) And pension and other strict tax advantaged funds don't count in this calculation since there is no tax effect. So how many funds do? I don't really have a clue how to quantify in an easy manner. The only reason that this is any more than a parlor game is that a true sell off could initially be laid off to this old saw. In other words, sell off is unlikely to occur from here on out, but if it did start, that would be something to note.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (67678)	10/11/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Heinz, Its interesting and at time amusing to listen to the battles between the strong BULLs and the strong bears, and Im not talking about those who are slightly bearish/bullish. Both the extreme BULLs and BEARs have basicly been wrong since APRIL, with one side calling for a crash and the other side calling for a strong continuation(not talking about the blowoff, since thats part of the bearish senerio). The market has been in a trading range for about 6 months already with the recent shift to the downside recently. I need to add that I am talking about the INDICIES since the broader market is weaker. So when the market moves up the bulls made some money and when the market moved down the bears made some money, that is of course if the right sector was picked. Although I am long term bearish, heck if I know when the market will break or blastoff, but there is still money to be made by picking the right sector and the right direction. My point of all this is that we should really put our heads together instead of fighting, to determine which sectors are the right one to go long or short in light of the sector rotation. There is money to be made in both directions, but will the majority be able to fight their egos. Im not saying that this type of trading range will continue for ever, just that while it is the current trend why fight it. The old saying is dont fight the TREND, and the TREND is neither clearly up or down. I realise that there is some evidence that the trend may be changing right now, but this range-trading/sector rotation should not disappear immediately either, unless there is a crash. seeya