Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (74895)	10/10/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1573138

Kash, <The company clearly has OVERCAPACITY> I guess that would be true given that they can't seem to get the right speed bins for K6 to make the fab starts profitable. It is definitely not clear to me that there is overcapacity in the context of Athlon that they have more capacity than they need. The problem to me seems that they can't ramp the much needed Fab30 as fast as they can. (the motherboard problems would have made any additional wafer starts as unsold goods but that is a one quarter problem). <They LOST the low end to Intel, because AMD was unwilling/unable/unprepared to manufacture its own MB/Chipsets so it could compete on packaged sales.> If you look at the recent developments, looks like we may see a short term uptick on K6s - i.e., regain some of the low-end market share. <Jerry is investing under the assumption that Dresden/Fab 25 will allow him to sell 10M units/quarter. Frankly this is not going to happen without a major shift in consumer branding on a worldwide basis.> Would be interested to hear why you think this is the case. I never thought the consumer business had much loyalty outside of price and that was pretty conclusively proven with K6 (as long as it stayed competitive in speedbins). The problem so far has been lack of AMD penetration in the corporate place but it can be argued that AMD never really had the right product for that space. <In addition there has been nothing been done on the demand creation side.> In the case of K6's, weren't you the one who posted the "color" PC story on AMD? ZDnet is reporting that several OEMs have signed up to use these PCs. As far as Athlon's are concerned, so far it appears that demand creation was not the problem. <Pumping up useless capacity without commensurate effort in the infrastructure side is a very shaky strategy IMHO> Yup, they screwed up the motherboard side. Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (74895)	10/11/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: tejek	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573138

RE <<<<Re:"RAZA wanted to sell dresden" This may not have been a bad idea. The company clearly has OVERCAPACITY. And as the 0.18 micron ramps the volumes of CPU's will ramp 2x to ATHLON volumes of 5-6M/qtr in a few months just from Austin alone.>>> In a later post S. Porter said it cost AMD $600 mil to get fab 30 and you still think it may not be a bad idea to sell it. Fab 30 is a steal and can be used in several different ways to create revenue. I am sorry you can't see that. Instead of an albatross around AMD's neck, I think fab 30 is an uncut jewel. RE <<<Jerry felt he needed more fabs to compete with Intel, the problem is that he has disregarded the whole infrastructure issue of competing with Intel. And genning up a chipset without AGP4x support or PC133 support does not strike me as great support. Clearly the MB situation was an AMD screwup and I find it unconsionable that they are blaming the earthquake for them missing Q3 sales of 150K Athlons.>>> It is clear to you and few others that the mb screwup was AMD's fault...like I said before I can't buy into that scenario. It is not a rational conclusion from the info that is available. RE <<<My point about MBs and chipsets has not been simply been about the K7 situation. They LOST the low end to Intel, because AMD was unwilling/unable/unprepared to manufacture its own MB/Chipsets so it could compete on packaged sales.>>> What they lost is a commanding share of the low end and just like intc this year, they can regain it. BTW I see the low end for maintaining full usage of the fabs, not for generating profits. RE <<<They seem to me about to do the same with the AThlon. Standalone the AThlon is a great CPU. Now you couple it with low quality unavailable chipsets and motherboards and you have a losing proposition.>> I don't have a clue on you came to this conclusion. RE <<<This company keeps pumping MORE money into Cap Ex in the foundry area (where it has way overcapacity) while it does nothing to adress the MB/Chipset issues or the product marketing of its CPU's (where funds and focus are SORELY needed).>>> How do you know they are not doing anything? RE <<<Jerry is investing under the assumption that Dresden/Fab 25 will allow him to sell 10M units/quarter.>>> How do you know this? Kash, does Jerry call you or something? RE <<<<Frankly this is not going to happen without a major shift in consumer branding on a worldwide basis.>>> The future is a blank slate; anything is possible. RE <<<Due to the lack of management focus we will SELL FEWER CPU's than a year ago. In addition there has been nothing been done on the demand creation side.>>> Again how do you know this? Kash, you bring to all of this a huge wave of negativity. Its like Mani asked; what's happened to you? first you were pleased by the CC, now you are in dispair over it. RE <<<Pumping up useless capacity without commensurate effort in the infrastructure side is a very shaky strategy IMHO.>>> What is a very shaky strategy is taking on intc and yet, unbelievably, remarkably, incredibly, slowly but surely, AMD is pulling it off. I am sorry you don't see that. ted