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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (42642)10/11/1999 12:22:00 AM
From: Michael Collings  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116764
 
TA:
I believe Hutch and Armstrong don't necessarily disagree with your arguments on whole...... Armstrong believes that down the road things will get very messy.... but he contends that the scenario is down the road sometime after 2002 or 2003. He is also a believer that that is when gold will finally take off for real.

Armstrong makes some very good arguments and I suggest you read him. I am not a gold stander in regard to floating currency. That system worked worse than the present one and to cry about it is like crying over the loss of horseshoes. The gold standard could not possibly work in the type of economy we have. That said, it is obvious that the floating system is loaded with flaws as well.....

The real question is "are we to the point when all the deficit spending and private and government debt is about to implode?" Armstrong makes a strong case that the time is not yet. His contention that y2k will be very bullish for the dollar makes sense. Since we are more ready than any other country, the flight to dollars is all but assured.

I am most definitely a gold bug, but I realize that manias can last a long time and to try to pinpoint the exact top is useless. I remember watching Japan in the 80"s and knowing full well that it was going to implode but it kept going up much longer than anyone expected. I hold gold with the full knowledge that I cannot know when gold will begin to move but that sometime.... sometime... all the positive fundamentals will come into play.

The fundamentals you site have been building for a long time and may continue to build a few more years if Armstrong is correct. I would be hesitant to resort to name calling when expounding your views. Personally, I'll hold the gold position for as long as it takes. I've been in gold stocks for a year and I'm sure I have awhile to go before I'd be willing to sell. I console myself with the idea that I am now in long term capital gain territory versus ordinary income. I won't be devastated it this is not the "real move" and ecstatic if it is.