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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HighTech who wrote (8884)	10/13/1999 1:57:00 AM
From: RFH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

HI, HiTech. That's a pretty nifty suggestion, but if you were ever in a situation where you were AIMing a stock which went down down down, you know for sure that it takes guts guts guts! I don't really think it would be worth the additional ulcers to accelerate the buying without knowing for sure if you have the cash to continue all the way to the bottom. Check out my AIM stock IIT at: elnet.com and click on the symbol. The second graphic on the page that appears gives you an idea of what you go through in a prolonged buying phase. My initial buy was at $26, and I started AIMing it at $14. This one went down to just over $4.00 per share, but I ran out of guts (not cash) at $5 1/2, missing the very bottom. Talk about panic! Any thoughts from the AIM veterans out there? Sincerely, RFH

To: HighTech who wrote (8884)	10/13/1999 9:02:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi HT, I've been fiddling with "SAFE Switching" for some time. So far the results have been inconclusive. The first test I tried was running with 10% Buy SAFE, 0.0% Sell SAFE and using "vealies" all the way. It did a better job of conserving cash in the downturns, but never made it into the lead. The next test lets the Idiot Wave be the SAFE guide. This is more complex and demands LOTS OF FAITH in the IW. My first attempt is to go to 0.0% SAFE on the Sell side when the IW hits High Risk. This would bring on a "selling climax" inside our portfolios. Whatever SAFE was taken from the Sell side would be added to the Buy side. So, if we started at 10% Sell and 10% Buy, then during High Risk periods, we'd be at 0.0% Sell and 20% Buy SAFE. Let's assume that the risk level drops back into the Average area for a while. Then we switch back to 10%/10%. Now, if the IW continues to fall into the Low Risk area, we'd make a shift to 0.0% Buy SAFE and transfer that resistance to the Sell side making it 20%. This would bring on a "buying climax" when the market's in a very low risk condition (like last Fall). If we hadn't already exhausted our cash reserves, this certainly would help!!! Again, a return to Average Risk would shift the SAFE levels back to 10%/10%. This is going to require some rather exhaustive testing and I've not come anywhere near completing it. Bob Norman suggested after I explained this idea that instead of big jumps as I've just described, maybe it would make sense to move it 1 point at a time in conjunction with the IW. At this time the IW is showing 44% Cash for stocks. So, with Bob's idea, AIM would currently be 6% Sell SAFE and 14% Buy Resistance. I think Bob just added significantly to my work load!!! Thanks for bringing up the idea. As we get more and more users running "what if" values in more interesting ways, there will be more fine tuning, I'm sure. Best regards, Tom