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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (75431)	10/13/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573048

Mani, Re:"Q4 ASPs" I just don't know how Intel is gonna do it. Already AMD will be slashing prices at end of month to make room for higher speed grades of Athlon and K6-2's. So naturally one might assume Intels ASPs will decrease at say $30/cpu for Q4 over Q3. So that means an average ASP of $155 for Q4. (on 30m pcs that translates to a $900M reduction in profits over Q3). Now we have to add the Coppermine devices to the mix. If they sell XM coppermines at an average ASP of $300 the profit on that is likely to be $200/unit - just rough numbers. So they need to sell 4.5M coppermines to match the 1.9Bn in profits for this quarter. To meet the forecast for the Q4 they will need to sell 6-7mn Coppermines. To have blow out earnings they will need to ship 8-10Mn coppermines. This all assumes they can sell all this product. I am having a really tought time making their numbers come out. If they are unable to hit the high clock speed grades in the 700-750Mhz arena then its very difficult to see how they average $300 ASPs as well for coppermines. Overall seems pretty impossible to me unless they ramp up the celeron 500 and introduce the celery 550's ASAP and shut off some of the lower Mhz celerons. I think this will be great news for AMD as there is no way they can keep bombing the low end to the extent that they have been. I just don't think they will risk missing earnings 3 quarters in a row even at the risk of giving AMD some pricing slack. regards, kash