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To: Tom Trader who wrote (36579)	10/14/1999 8:22:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 44573

Morning Tom, I don't know if such a crash will really occur, but I did post the site because I thought it was timely considering the events in the markets in the last few days.... I think we could still see DOW 9200-9600 by the end of this month..... My Best. GZ

To: Tom Trader who wrote (36579)	10/14/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Hi Tom, look at this graph given your comments on the yield level and valuations. decisionpoint.com I do agree with you that the market is vulnerable and 7.25% in the long bond would be its death knell -- in fact, given where we are with valuations, I suspect a lot less than that rate on the long bond would do it.

To: Tom Trader who wrote (36579)	10/14/1999 10:29:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Hello Tom, Great to have your commentary back on SI..... I agree with your premise and the requirement of news events to precipitate a collapse of these markets. This has been a long Bull market going back probably before 1987....I believe this recent leg, driven by the Internet and computer technology, began on 10/28/97 for chartists. AOL was under $5.00 and IBM under $25.00 and Intel under $18.00, etc. DJIA Put a fork on 10/28/97 and the spread July 98 high - Sept 98 low That has carried the long term market quit nicely and seems an acceptable fork. Its lower tine is at about 9600. Also 10/28/97 to Aug 99 high there is a 38% retracement at 9700.... [50% retrace is at 9100] This area 96-9700 seems likely support for any significant market pull back. But without any serious complications from some external news event the crash scenario presented is just interesting. I don't believe that the chart presented by GZ will come true. With that said...chartists look for patterns and that chart has powerful images and perhaps an "Event" will materialize to make the pattern come true. But I do believe, have for sometime, that we've been watching a bear leg form....and it may well last into July of 2000. I'm also beginning to look for psychological changes in the market buyers temperament and a swing back towards natural resource companies. Over the next 10 years....if USA economy and the worlds economy are going to remain strong and solvent....Growth Must continue and demand from developing countries must increase in order to maintain the present industrial capacity. Look for increased funding of poorer countries by the World bank and other institutions as they attempt to create new markets for the industrial worlds sustenance. However, this new demand will also increase inflationary pressures world wide. Chip BTW....have you or anyone got a copy of Volcker's 50 Stocks?