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Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (5048)	10/14/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10027

KP's job was to SELL that vision AHEAD of time, Bezos-style, so that when the OLBs reduced their stream to NITE, this should have been spun as "expected". Expected or not, when it happened, and revenue and earnings fell as a result, no amount of "spin" could have held up the stock price. Come out of the "hype" world for a minute. When business conditions change for profitable comapnies, no amount of spin can keep inflated prices up. Stocks like MSFT, INTC, CSCO, get much more leeway in this area than a NITE would because of their long histories of earnings consistency and dominant industry positions. Others, like NITE will pay a price. Are you telling me that AMZN has convinced the street as well AS THE INDIVIDUAL investor that their business is a great one, even though if you just looked at the #s, you'd have to pick NITE rahter than AMZN? Yes. Obviously. In that case why can't NITE management do the same job (or better)? Different business, different set of expectations. Real numbers to meet. Case closed. Only in your view, sorry. countless internet stocks that have hugely greater valuations relative to earnings or any other yardstick compared to NITE. Hard to measure value relative to earnings when there are none. When these countless companies finally do earn their first penny, how will the market value them? PE multiple of course. Some will deserve higher multiples than others. A few will get outrageous multiples. What multiple do you think NITE deserves when then have stated they can deliver 30% earngings growth over time? Do they deserve an infinite multiple like an internet stock? Or an "in-line" multiple like other profitable financial industry stocks? Once a company jumps to being profitable, what other measures can there be? NITE is far-reaching in scope (international etc) and more innovative than any number of rinky-dink MMs. Sorry, but selling the sizzle is KP's job. Non-existant stuff, yet. And you are a daytrader. Tell me about that "sizzle" of grinding out teenies on tough days. :) But the fact is, that in eruptive business models you cannot use the same valuation methods as in a fixed business model. What makes you think market making is an "eruptive" business model? NITE can't really remake itself on a whimm like an AMZN can to re-fuel a fading candle. They can only diversify there businesses in real time, not "hype" in internet time, like AMZN The fact, and yes its a fact, that AMZN.con is able convince investors that they will dominate e-tailing is beyond me. You understand this phenomenon, I don't. I just want to know when they will earn $337M in a year ($1/share), in their negtive margin business, so that I can make a guess as to whether they deserve an 80 PE. What did I hear some say recently? The market is not only discounting the future, but the hereafter as well. :) That is the whole premise behind net stocks NITE is not a net stock. KP himself complained that the market is not willing to assign NITE the same p/e ratios as to the OLBs!!! Don't recall this one, but I'm only recently involved in this stock. I'll take your word. But again, hard to compare PE's with OLBs that have fallen back into the red. All this rhetoric aside, do your really think "promises" about future growth potential carry more weight than a missed earnings estimate? Gary