Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (36773)	10/14/1999 6:00:00 PM
From: Gary E	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

GZ, I have never lost anything even close to that, I hope that it's not a reqiurement for sucesssfull trading, and I hope that when you did it was replaced fairly quick. The numbers, well I really admire the folks that can anaylize them and take a position prior to the release. If anyone has a clue and the charts I believe tell the story, we are in a down trend and have been since July though the 1265 spx area does look like support. If there gona throw a wrench, hope it's a big stilson <GG>> Hal

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (36773)	10/14/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

<have you ever lost that kind of money.> Yeah. And no, it ain't fun. As a result, even in the contest I'm a lot more cautious that I used to be.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (36773)	10/14/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Greenspan mouting off on asset bubble, and future sell off in aftermarket. Not looking good for stock market tomorrow. ******************************************************************** Thursday October 14, 7:22 pm Eastern Time TEXT-Greenspan speech on measuring risk We can readily describe this process, but, to date, economists have been unable to anticipate sharp reversals in confidence. Collapsing confidence is generally described as a bursting bubble, an event incontrovertibly evident only in retrospect. To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific investments that make up our broad price indexes of stocks and other assets. Nevertheless, if episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, the implications for risk measurement and risk management are significant. Probability distributions estimated largely, or exclusively, over cycles that do not include periods of panic will underestimate the likelihood of extreme price movements because they fail to capture a secondary peak at the extreme negative tail that reflects the probability of occurrence of a panic. Furthermore, joint distributions estimated over periods that do not include panics will underestimate correlations between asset returns during panics. Under these circumstances, fear and disengagement on the part of investors holding net long positions often lead to simultaneous declines in the values of private obligations, as investors no longer realistically differentiate among degrees of risk and liquidity, and to increases in the values of riskless government securities. Consequently, the benefits of portfolio diversification will tend to be overestimated when the rare panic periods are not taken into account. The uncertainties inherent in valuations of assets and the potential for abrupt changes in perceptions of those uncertainties clearly must be adjudged by risk managers at banks and other financial intermediaries. At a minimum, risk managers need to stress test the assumptions underlying their models and set aside somewhat higher contingency resources -- reserves or capital -- to cover the losses that will inevitably emerge from time to time when investors suffer a loss of confidence. These reserves will appear almost all the time to be a suboptimal use of capital. So do fire insurance premiums. More important, boards of directors, senior managers, and supervisory authorities need to balance emphasis on risk models that essentially have only dimly perceived sampling characteristics with emphasis on the skills, experience, and judgment of the people who have to apply those models. Being able to judge which structural model best describes the forces driving asset pricing in any particular period is itself priceless. To paraphrase my former colleague Jerry Corrigan, the advent of sophisticated risk models has not made people with grey hair, or none, wholly obsolete.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (36773)	10/14/1999 7:48:00 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

take a look at the after market - serious drop -12/-15 points Greenspan apparently put out some unkind words in a speech after market close.