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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (29944)	10/15/1999 1:36:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Have you seen the "no exit" post? Talk about bleak! Message 11524553

To: HairBall who wrote (29944)	10/15/1999 1:38:00 PM
From: Walt Deemer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Just got a phone call with an options update for today: Index put/call 1.70 Equity put/call .88 -- with three half-hourly readings above 1.00 Both highest since October 8th of last year [Insert all disclaimers, including the fact that today is an options expiration day] FWIW...

To: HairBall who wrote (29944)	10/15/1999 1:46:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

LG- Granville's Market observations showed that the public will turn fearful about 2/3 of the way thru a bear market. Given that the OMC bear started about 1-1/2 years ago- We may be very close to that 2/3 point. The last 1/3 (9 months by the OMC estimation) may be ugly though. <ng> 77 support level is slipping on the XAU. Just a spectator today. I watched bubblevision for a while but got tired of the spin. Nobody looked scared to me, FWIW. Of course that's why they make the big bucks, right. <g>

To: HairBall who wrote (29944)	10/15/1999 2:25:00 PM
From: space cadet	Respond to of 99985

I agree that the big boys sure don't want to induce mass selling, at least not yet. Especially not today as this is options expiration and would make quite a few little boys rich if it happened. However, two things that I don't thing have been emphasized enough are: 1) Unlike last year, it seems like virtually everyone saw this October's troubles coming and raised cash or took other defensive measures. Tons of people I know who got killed last October or earlier this year were totally out of the market this year. No one seems surprised here and I don't know anyone who has been severely hurt here either. 2) No matter what it appears the hi-flyers just won't go down, the emc's, sunw's, csco's, etc. Of course, they probably will for a couple of days right around the crash if there is one, but then it will be right back up. Maybe they will only go down much intraday even. It seems to me because so many people are on the sidelines this year compared to last, we may not get a capitulation bottom like last year, which served as a great buying opportunity. So it may be tougher to call the bottom this time. Also, the hi-tech titans seem virtually impervious this entire year so they may not even get hit at all, so they too may not serve as a buy signal. Of course, if they go down they would be a great buy but they are too loved apparently to go down even in a hurricane. Either way, we are probably getting within a few weeks or less of a terrific buying opportunity. While the titans may not get hit this year, they also may not go up as much. I'm looking to buy some second tier tech stocks this time around instead. More dangerous but maybe more upside potential.