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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (30074)	10/15/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, extended bull markets that reach historic extremes have ALWAYS been followed by incredibly durable and destructive bear markets. this is why i often point to the similarities (valid imo) i discern between the current mania and the 20's' and Japanese '80's manias. what most people don't realize, is that the most important lesson from these periods is that the bull may not return to it's former (or current) glory for years to come. the buy and holders will simply be destroyed and they won't hold forever. EVERYTHING points to the fact that we are in the vincinity of just such a major peak. i would be very surprised if the secular top wasn't in already. since you mention options trading activity, it is just one more piece of the puzzle: at the July peak for the SPX, put/call ratios fell to record lows. i said in my MDA sentiment update back then that the confluence of 12-year highs in bullish advisors and record low ratios pointed to major intermediate term trouble. and now we seem to be in the midst of it. the complacency demonstrated by analysts at this point is really amazing...there is no sense of alarm. next week will be VERY interesting. regards, hb