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To: donald sew who wrote (30084)	10/15/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

Good Luck on your trip and make it a safe one. But just in case you do go off a cliff. Put your guitar string formula in a sealed envelope in a safe deposit box with instructions in case you don't return to allow the bidding on it at EBAY for us SI friends. Or else leave it in your will to your partners here, ol' buddy, ol pal, ol mostest bestest friend in the whole entire world ...... <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: donald sew who wrote (30084)	10/15/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

Have a nice trip don .. Next time go just a little further west .. <g> Gersh

To: donald sew who wrote (30084)	10/16/1999 1:30:00 AM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

I am beginning to suspect that this sell-off has gone about as far as is warranted by the possibility of another rate hike. Re-reading Greenspan's remarks: He appeared to be challenging the thesis that equities warrant high prices because in the long run they have higher returns than bonds. He didn't name "DOW 36,000" but that appears to be what he was challenging. He doesn't want the bankers to discount risk in stocks. I hope Greenspan cautions some group every couple of months. I'd rather have multiple small sell-offs than one really big one. My other observation is that the September core rate of inflation (0.8%) is somewhat distorted by early auto model changes (driven by the need to circumvent the CAFE fuel efficiency goals for 1999) and an 8.4% increase in tobacco prices in September--not likely to be repeated anytime soon. If you discount tobacco, the core PPI rate drops to 0.3%; if you also discount new model year auto prices, you end up with a core PPI rate of 0.1%. That sounds like good news, not bad news. It takes time for Fed rate increases to impact the economy (not the market)--about 5-6 months. The April increase is just being felt. The impact of the August will be felt in the first quarter of next year. It would be dangerous for the Fed to increase rates rapidly if the economy responds slowly. So far they have been raising rates because of an increased potential for inflation--not because of evidence of inflation. In a very strong economy, a few small rate hikes to head off potential inflation may be prudent, but it wouldn't be prudent to have too many such hikes without clear evidence of inflation and before the economy can respond.

To: donald sew who wrote (30084)	10/16/1999 8:04:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 99985

Thanks Donald.. have as safe trip//to "Ashville"???? <g> regards...

To: donald sew who wrote (30084)	10/18/1999 5:31:00 PM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

donald-- I believe you are the resident shipping expert? If so, here 'ya go. (Should make for some interesting Trade Deficit numbers, eh?) news.excite.com FairUse/etc... Y2K stockpiling boosts LA port traffic Updated 4:17 PM ET October 15, 1999 LOS ANGELES, Oct. 15 (UPI) Cargo containers continued to flow through the Port of Los Angeles at a record pace, in part because of importers beefing up their inventories ahead of potential Y2K problems, port officials said Friday. "Imports are arriving in particularly high volumes, reflecting the port's busiest-ever holiday shipping season and inventory buildup by some companies as a defensive strategy in case of Y2K-related problems," Al Fierstine, director of business development for the port, said in a news release. The port handled 336,936 20-foot cargo containers, known as 20-foot- equivalent units (TEUs), in September. It was the fifth consecutive month above 300,000 containers. The September figure was up 16.2 percent, or 46,957 TEUs, over September 1998. "The consistent improved performance by exports this year compared to 1998 also indicates that the economic recovery in most of Asia is proceeding well," Fierstine said. The marine industry relies on computers for nearly all phases of operation, including the handling of ships, communications, navigation and the handling of cargo at ports. The U.S. Coast Guard requires vessels leaving and arriving in U.S. ports to undergo Y2K testing of vital systems, and to have crewmembers standing by during the transfers of oil and chemicals. "Any system with embedded microchips could produce erroneous data," The coast guard said in a recent Y2K release. "This could lead to marine casualties; traffic control problems; and loading and unloading problems."