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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (30118)	10/16/1999 1:43:00 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

Say Jack- You don't pull on superman's cape. You don't spit into the wind. You don't pull the mask off the ole lone ranger and you don't fight the FED. You will not win. No one drives cars or smokes or anything. So bite off on the bull spin if you want. I'm not. This is the WORST technically that I have ever seen the market. It may not be next week, but this sucker is dead meat. Buy at your own risk. One last chapter in this book. And it looks like a horror story. Regards, TW

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (30118)	10/16/1999 2:41:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

It takes time for Fed rate increases to impact the economy (not the market)- the free market has set rates well ahead and above the fed funds rate and has already had effects on the economy, at least my realtor sez so. the fed has continued to be very easy on the markets, even though the bulls don't think so. excellent part of John M's post from Bollinger: Greed in excess blinds one to risk and thus opens the trapdoor to the abyss. Ego narrows the possibilities. Hubris suggests one can succeed where all others have failed. Leverage ups the intensity. blinds one to risk blinds one to risk blinds one to risk blinds one to risk Hubris suggests one can succeed where all others have failed. Hubris suggests one can succeed where all others have failed. Hubris suggests one can succeed where all others have failed. There is no risk in the market, buy and hold, this time is different.

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (30118)	10/16/1999 7:37:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 99985

>>I am beginning to suspect that this sell-off has gone about as far as is warranted by the possibility of another rate hike.<< I don't think a rate hike is what this is all about... In 1987 AG warned about 'irrational exuberance' and the market ignored him.. he has been warning about inflated equities and rates started ticking higher and the market ignored that also.... this is not the first time we've seen this... in 1987 AG warned us about 'speculative excesses in the marketplace,' rates were ticking higher, and the market ignored him also... I suspect the forthcoming decline may be of mamouth proportions if history repeats itself and the proper position is to remain short and sell all rallies... I think the main reason that history repeats itself every now and then is because every now and then people forget the lessons they learned the hard way..... GZ

To: Jack T. Pearson who wrote (30118)	10/16/1999 9:40:00 AM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I agree with your post and applaud you for how well thought your position is. However, it seems to me that there is sometimes another "macro" event that occurs....for lack of a better word, I think of it as a "current" as in river current....from 1997 and until a few months ago, the "current" was taking events toward disinflationary shores, no matter what the new event, it was toward lower prices, more overcapacity, etc.....now the "current" seems to be toward "inflationary" shores....higher commodities (even gold!), less capacity (earthquake), tobacco, etc. The reason I bring this up is this: the interpretation of the numbers is going to be in the direction of the "current", and that interpretation will be the correct one....so, even though the "core" PPI ex volatiles and apparently one time events, seems to be good news, in light of the shift in "current", I don't know that we can ex all of those items from the number and be accurate in our read of inflation.