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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MMW who wrote (10077)	10/16/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 21876

MMW, Yeah, the cash flow issue was pointed out to me a few weeks back and I have to say it has me very concerned and questioning the short term for LU. But long term LU will get this issue fixed. Nexabit is new and has not generated anything yet - but it will. $900M was chump change for that one. ASND...that will pay off as well. The acquisition will begin bearing fruit very soon in a major way. LU's real challenged as I've said many times in the past is transitioning from ...dare I say...old world to new world deployments. It's the transition that will be their challenge. And this is a very tough thing to manage but LU has the management to make it happen and when they do they'll come out very strong. Bullish? Let's just say that: 1. I'm confident that LU isn't going away anytime soon. 2. The market is huge 3. LU is well known and respected 4. LU has the products and people to succeed. 5. They'll manage their short term problems. OG

To: MMW who wrote (10077)	10/17/1999 1:56:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 21876

They bought ASND and tried very hard to make GFR to work with no result. Did you mean GRF, instead of GFR? I hope you are not suggesting that LU bought ASND for its routers! Tom

To: MMW who wrote (10077)	10/17/1999 3:22:00 AM
From: hitesh puri	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

To do a fair comparison you have to look around into the balance sheets of all the players in the same space of being a Telecom/Data Comm providers. So I ask you to look into the balance sheets of NT and ERICY. Dont bunch CSCO into that as Cisco hardly has projects going into hundreds of millions and requiring deployments stretching into quarters. Most of their deals are Enterprise based, yes, even their Telecom/Carrier ones. And even in the pure Carrier sales there is no, Voice, Wireless and Optical (mainly IP routers and switches since they have no competitive ATM products) which require far more complex and intensive installations and testing. Cisco is a major Data player. Period. When they have pure Telecom products being sold to the tune of a Billion to Carriers and employees more than 3 times their current strength then include them. Why, because that will mean they have a very broad product portfolio in a broad range of markets which requires many product developments, massive manufacturing streams and built up inventory of basic parts. Till then its Apples to Oranges and that is quite apparent in the high PE of CSCO. Now, if you look at Lucents Annual Cash flow statement it is very much positive. Compare that with NT and ERICY and you will see a similar pattern of rising falling net positive cash flows for the year over 5 years. moneycentral.msn.com. Then if you look at the Quarterly cash flows of NT and ERICY then those too are not anything worth writing home about. NT has been negative for the last 2 quarters compared to Lucents last 3 being negative. ERICY shows only one and that is close to the value that LU has even though ERICY's revenue is almost half of Lucents. moneycentral.msn.com. Here is my take. These issues not withstanding there is a massive short position in LU and the media is using it to their advantage. The biggest mistake anyone can do is compare Cisco to NT or LU. CSCO is frankly incomparable today since all their networking competitors compete with them in small segments. And Cisco has not reached that scale to compete with NT and LU in the telecom space. -Hitesh

To: MMW who wrote (10077)	10/17/1999 1:30:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

MMW, re:" They bought ASND and tried very hard to make GFR to work with no result." How do you figure? They bought ASND then snapped up Nexabit and cancelled the GRF. They knew what they were getting and put no additional effort into it. Nexabit is a play for next year. Isn't it obvious to you that Nexabit needed the additional resources of LU to finish this thing in a timely fashion? Btw, what product is presently selling that is delivering terabit speeds? NT will probably be the first to have one out. Brian