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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9340)	10/17/1999 6:48:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

So What is Up with the Dollar? NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Friday, ending a week of sometimes turbulent trading lower as data showing surging U.S. wholesale prices rekindled talk of a Fed rate hike and rattled U.S. asset markets. Weaker asset prices pushed the dollar down to near seven-month lows against Europe's single currency and two-week lows against the Japanese yen. A stronger-than-expected jump in U.S. producer prices ripped through the stock market, sending the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 2.5 percent on the day. U.S. September producer prices posted a 1.1-percent rise, growing at the fastest pace in nine years and twice as strongly as Wall Street economists had forecast. "The PPI surprised the market on the upside, and that's extremely bad for U.S. assets in this environment when globally a tightening process is on the verge of starting," said Tomas Jelf, currency strategist at Warburg Dillon Read. The greenback also slammed to 6-1/2 month lows against the Swiss franc and its lowest level in a year against the British pound. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan had put the dollar in a gloomy mood overnight when he cautioned bankers to be on guard for a possible downturn in the financial markets. Although bond prices initially slid after the data, they reversed course to close higher as investors sought shelter from a crumbling equity market. By late afternoon, the Dow Jones industrial average had extended its losses to tumble briefly below 10,000, bouncing back only slightly to end 266 points lower at 10,019, which kept the dollar under pressure dealers said. The euro ended the session more than a full cent higher at $1.0895/00 from $1.0779/84 late Thursday, after beginning U.S. trading at a firmer $1.0855/60. Meanwhile, the dollar tumbled almost two yen to 105.40/50 from 107.30/40 in late Thursday trading and slipped from 105.80/85 as New York dealing kicked in. Earlier in the week, the dollar had gotten a brief reprieve against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan adopted steps to make their money market operations more flexible, although it left its official interest rates unchanged. But the yen's pain was short-lived, and dealers said the dollar was likely to find little relief against either the euro or the yen in the week ahead. Market players were warily eyeing U.S. consumer price data due on Tuesday for further signs that the specter of inflation might push the Federal Reserve to tighten interest rates in the near future. "Today's PPI number certainly sounded off alarm bells with regard to interest rates and inflation risks in the United States," said Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange market analyst at Ruesch International. "Anything that would support a Fed tightening at the November meeting will tend to destabilize U.S. asset markets and consequently the U.S. dollar," Beuzelin added. Expectations of higher European interest rates will also hold the market's sway, with the European Central Bank set to meet on Thursday. "We'll go through the same nightmare with the CPI number and then the ECB may raise rates which should be a kick in the head for the Dow," which translates into more losses for the dollar, a dealer at a U.S. investment bank said. Some traders said they were looking for the euro to move higher to $1.10 and then $1.12, reflecting both concerns about U.S. assets and expectations of growth in the euro zone. In other trading, the British pound surged to a 1999 high of $1.6725, before settling to $1.6695/05, still well above $1.6617/27 on Thursday. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar fell to a low of 1.4542 francs, down two francs from 1.4752/62 on Thursday, and ended not far off at 1.4555/65 francs. But the dollar gained against the Canadian dollar <CAD=> to peak at a five-week high of C$1.4900, against C$1.4802/05 previously. It then settled at C$1.4864/74 as New York trading wound down. The Australian dollar <AUD=> edged down modestly to $0.6472/77 from $0.6485/86.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9340)	10/17/1999 6:52:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Watch that Oil UAE says too early to discuss extending oil cuts DUBAI, October 16 (Reuters) - The United Arab Emirates oil minister said on Saturday that it was too early to discuss the possibility of extending global production cuts. Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri told a news conference the producers group would discuss production curbs, which have raised oil prices dramatically, at its ministerial meeting in Vienna in March -- "not now." OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and other members have suggested the cartel might extend the more than two million barrels per day (bpd) of supply curbs beyond their expiry at the end of March. OPEC and other producers are trying to build on the success of the production cuts, which rescued oil prices from below $10 last year and have given the cartel renewed clout in the market. Stronger prices have raised questions over whether producers would consider changing production policy but OPEC ministers have repeatedly said the cuts would remain in place until the end of March. Recent independent surveys showed that compliance with the supply curbs, a key factor watched by the world oil market, slipped in September, driving down prices recently. Nasseri said compliance with the cuts was still high and that producers were serious about abiding by the agreement, adding it was in the interest of all producers to show production discipline. Oil prices recovered early losses to end stronger on Friday, with the markets remaining volatile as they try to balance signs of erosion in global oil stocks against hints that OPEC discipline was slipping. World benchmark Brent blend crude oil futures last traded 61 cents up at $22.50 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange, helped by stronger U.S. heating oil. Nasseri predicted higher demand in the peak winter months would improve prices. "Prices will be better than what we saw last year or the start of this year," he said.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9340)	10/17/1999 6:57:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Sentiment Brinker said today the Put/Call ratio was improving with the 10 DMA at .70. On Friday, the P/C ratio closed at 1.05. Now that is something we have not seen since the October lows. Now this is a good sign long term but there is nothing to suggest that the 10 DMA cannot get worse short term. In fact, a higher reading would be consistent with other market bottoms. Now this would surely be great news.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9340)	10/17/1999 7:04:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Time to Margin Up on Technology Stocks? One view of 1987 and technology stocks then: arts.unimelb.edu.au

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (9340)	10/17/1999 7:41:00 AM
From: Berk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

You know, of course, that 1987 also had a very high correlation with 1929. Don't recall the exact percentage but it lasted until almost the end of the year. Back then there was much discussion in the press about it, though certainly the vast bulk of it was after the 19th.