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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (32837)	10/17/1999 5:56:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Let's say the market panics and we dump to 8000 at the end on Tuesday. That will be a a loss very roughly equivalent to 1987, although not quite as severe. Forward pe's will be about 14.5 on the dow with a 6.3% long bond. In 1987, the bond was at 10% at the time of the crash. Ag was raising rates then too. But he was brand new to the job, and as an unknown, the street was concerned. The point is that we shouldn't go that low but we go through these things again and again and again and I swear some folks will never learn. Should I actually sell the Qcom I got at 100 at about 195 tomorrow and pay the taxes, reducing my real gain to about a price of 162? Things will have to get pretty fu**ing bad for Q to go under about 150 so that there is a significant difference. I will hold and the only reason to be afraid is if one is margined. We'll probably rally like hell and then get worried again next week.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (32837)	10/17/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 70976

"If one has gains in a stock like AMAT, the decision to sell at "market tops' is not as easy as SOME PEOPLE make it sound" These decisions are never easy. Too many things can go wrong. But for myself if I thought that the market was heading south for a few weeks. I would write a covered call on AMAT at the 85 strike for Nov. But the outlook for AMAT this month hasn't really changed. There has been no news from AMAT about an earnings warning. Most semi companies have reported better than expected earnings, so I would sit tight. Regards, Jerome

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (32837)	10/17/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 70976

Brian Only the most arrogant people try to jump in and out of the market Generally speaking in a bull market being fully invested is the best course of action. Trying to time moves if you are not a floor trader or speculator, speculator defined in the true sense of someone who is very, very knowledgeable about the markets, is probably amateurish. Let's assume for a minute you want to invest in AMAT for 5-10 years. If the Dow was at 11,000 and AMAT was trading at 80 and you considered this a top(for the overall market) and decided to sell AMAT because of it, you would need the price of AMAT to fall to about 64 to get back in with the number of shares you sold at 80. This is of course, due to capital gains taxes. 1. Amat is a cyclical stock it will have its peaks and troughs. For me it is a stock that I will sell when the cycle hits its peak assuming I can time it and assuming the overall market acts well. 2. When I guesstimate that the top for the overall market has been reached and a bear market is a possibility I will probably sell all stocks. To try to hide out in a bear market in the stock market is not wise. Any positions I may hold in exception will probably be hedged against the QQQ in the case of Amat, although my plans are to sell, or by shorting spyders. 3. When the bear comes I plan to exit the market. It won't make any difference to me where the price of Amat is. My only concern will be capital preservation. 4. Remember if you hold any positions in a bear market you won't have to worry about capital gains taxes because capital gains will evaporate. Always remember it makes no sense to see a stock go from $20 to $85 to see it go down to $20 again. The objective is to make as much as you can without regard to capital gains taxation issues. 5. Also remember in the next bear market the downside may be as dramatic as the upside has been and all stocks will be taken out and shot.