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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernie Goldberg who wrote (8954)	10/18/1999 3:47:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Bernie, Less than 50 posts to go to the next Millennium of AIM postings. I checked inventory and have enough to see us through to 10,000 posts. After that I'll have to create something new. In my own efforts, I've actually started some accounts with zero cash and others with cash as high as 80%. It does affect the "total return" on a percentage basis, but the reality is that if we're making money the percent hardly matters. The problem I had with starting with zero cash is that I felt obliged to start selling, following AIM's advice right away and continue it until the cash is built up to a substantial amount or what satisfies the Idiot Wave. What's wrong with this is that if we hit a big winner, we sell lots of shares before we start "vealies." The other thing wrong is that we lack purchasing power if we're not so lucky as to have hit a home run first time at bat. It's so rare that my stocks go up first that I've just gone ahead and allocated cash at the beginning. Otherwise I'll most likely be adding some along the way anyhow. The "vealie" helped my reluctance to do so. This week's Idiot Wave numbers are 43% for starting AIM stock accounts and 29% for AIM fund accounts. These values look destined to come down even more. Since 40% is about "average" for the Idiot Wave from 1982 to the present, we're actually still to the high side of average risk. I guess I'd suggest to people not to burn too much powder too quickly as they take AIM at their favorite equities. Best regards, Tom

To: Bernie Goldberg who wrote (8954)	10/18/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Jack Jagernauth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Bernie, It is always amazing to me how smart you guys are in looking at histories. Jack looks at a stock that he could have started with zero cash reserve. I didn't mean to suggest that it would be a good idea to start an AIM account in CAE.TO with zero cash reserve, based on the simulation. However, after back-testing, I feel that, at the current price (or an even lower one), there is no reason to start with 50% cash reserve for that particular stock. I would be comfortable with about 30% cash reserve. Another thing I thought, after back-testing, is that there are probably better AIM candidates than CAE.TO. Congratulations on your gas drilling stock. Regards, Jack