Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (10183)	10/18/1999 4:29:00 PM
From: KYA27	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Mcginn will have the last laugh.DON'T SHORT LU....YOU'LL PAY DEARLY McGinn is a SHORT KILLER.He despises them,he's inviting all the shorts in now for the kill. When will these people ever learn!!!!! GO McGinn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To: Techplayer who wrote (10183)	10/18/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21876

Observations on SBC: 1. In its conference call, SBC talked about upgrading 1400 COs to support xDSL. The vast majority of those COs are Lucent 5ESS, which will be upgraded to 7R/E to handle the conversion of voice to packet. However, the dollars for this may be included in the multi-billion dollar switch order SBC placed with LU earlier in the year. Nonetheless, this project ought to accelerate the pace of deployment. 2. SBC also talked about deploying/upgrading 25000 next-gen digital loop carriers. All signs point to Alcatel (DSC) winning the early deployments, but since this project will take 2-3 years to complete, there is undoubtably room for others to share in this business. Nortel has a strong product today. LU will have an updated product by early next year integrating the ASND RAS and DSLAM technology. It would be hard to imagine that spending on this quantity of DLCs would be more than $2.5B or so. 3. SBC will deploy 12000 route miles of fiber sheath to connect all of the DLCs. This could be a billion or two, with 2/3s being construction. LU will probably be a supplier of fiber, but the order will undoubtably be spread several ways unless we hear SBC start talking metro DWDM, in which case LU would have the inside track. 4. Some of the DSL will probably be handled directly from COs. Here LU has an advantage, as DSL has been integrated into the 7R/E architecture. However, the stand-alone DSLAM vendors will certainly compete. 5. Interoffice trunking will be ATM. Here we have NN and LU knocking heads. NN has the advantage of having won the most recent and largest orders from SBC for its data network , although there is a significant amount of Ascend gear in the former PacBell territory. LU has the advantage of incumbency in Williams network. There is probably $500M or more here for the winner, which could conceivably go to a none of the above, but I doubt it. 6. SBC will deploy Voice Trunking over ATM, a software technology still in early stages. Here LU is in great shape with its SoftSwitch technology, already chosen by Williams for end-to-end call management. This could be worth as much as $1billion.