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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ogod who wrote (5863)	10/19/1999 12:53:00 AM
From: grayhairs	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15703

Hi ogod, <<...since success at cc almost guarantees success at lucky dog...>> I acknowledge that there are some that feel this way but I personally feel this is a gross and very risky simplification. (Also, if there were many investors that actually believed this then the JV stocks would actually be running wild already !!) <<....the bulk of the jv s will sell off dramatically if cc comes up empty...>> ogod, I don't dispute that there'd be a "correction" if Cal Canal came come up dry. But, timing is everything. And, Cal Canal can not be known to be "empty" until it has drilled to TD at least 45 days from now !! Long before then, we will have ELH#1R tested. Hell, we might even have a JV\participant NR discussing a highly probable 3-15 TCF reserve in the ELH structure (based upon drilling data, log data, blowout well performance, flow test data, VSP interpretations, 2-D seismic interpretations, and the structural well control data provided by BKP#1). In that case, any sell off or correction, as a consequence of Cal Canal, will surely be from price levels much higher than todays !!! But, not to worry anyway. In order to reach your premise that Cal Canal may come up "empty", we have to ignore the obvious (that being that the JV already has encountered gas pay at Cal Canal !!). And, since Cal Canal is NOT dry\empty, does that not mean that Lucky Dog is already almost a guaranteed success ?? Or, do you require Cal Canal to be fully charged to the tune of 3-6 TCF before you would consider Lucky Dog guaranteed ?? If you require proven reserves of that magnitude, then I suggest that the Lucky Dog well will be drilled long before that comfort level is attained with Cal Canal. <<...the easy money will defect into trill and co....>> I have read\heard that TRIL's well is expected to spud anywhere from mid-November to mid-January. You may very well be right, but I have a very tough time understanding why easy money at ELH\GSJBJV would actually go into that play and wait 120 days after well spud for any results. Why would it not just stay where it is and await some much quicker anticipation and results on BKP#1 just 40-50 days from now ?? Or since the ELH#1R rig will very soon be available for Lucky Dog, why would it not await the essentially guaranteed success <gg> of Lucky Dog (also likely to be known well before Tril's first EKHO well results are available)?? Or even, Pyramid Power ?? Or, one of the several other GSJBJV projects that remain to spud ?? JMHOBWDIK. Have a pleasant evening. Best regards, grayhairs