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To: Bosco who wrote (9408)	10/20/1999 4:44:00 PM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Chinese Stability Masks Socio-Economic Tensions Summary: Disgruntled investors held demonstrations for a second day Oct. 19 in Chongqing, China. The demonstrations were in response to a government announcement concerning a waiting period for reimbursement from illegal investment schemes shut down by the government. The social unrest generated by these schemes - schemes the government originally pushed - raises a serious issue for China. While the government focused on maintaining stability during this year's sensitive anniversaries, the underlying socio-economic instability continues to mount. Analysis: A group of 500 investors demonstrated in Chongqing for the second day Oct. 19, according to the Information Center of Human Rights and Democratic Movement in China. The protests followed larger demonstrations a day earlier when 1,000 to 3,000 investors blocked railway stations and demonstrated in front of government offices. The protests were sparked by a government announcement Oct. 17 declaring that it would take up to three years to reimburse lost investments from illegal investment companies that the government was shutting down. In addition to protesting the lengthy process of refunding, demonstrators accused the local government of taking part in the original establishment of the funds and delaying notification that the investment schemes were illegal. China has been beset with low domestic spending and high savings, something the central government has been working to reverse by urging domestic investing. This, and the local Chongqing government's participation in the funds start-up, only adds to the protestors' anger. The investors believe the government is complicit, perceiving the delay in returning the money as a move to keep the booty in the government's own coffers as long as possible. The protests in Chongqing show the ongoing potential for economically generated social unrest in China. Throughout the year, there have been several demonstrations sparked by unemployment, unpaid pensions and other financial issues. Despite these localized displays of social unrest, the government has largely maintained stability during this year of key anniversaries and events. In fact, maintaining stability in the face of such events as the 10th anniversary of the June 4 Tiananmen Square incident and the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China has been a major government priority. Oct. 1 passed smoothly, but what now? As the Chongqing protests demonstrate, the government, while maintaining overall social order, has not addressed the underlying economic and social stresses in China. Despite maintaining relative stability by moving from key date to key date, it is questionable whether this short- term strategy will remain effective in the long run. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) stratfor.com or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) stratfor.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________

To: Bosco who wrote (9408)	10/25/1999 11:03:00 AM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9980

Glad to see that Tibet is still occasionally discussed on this thread. Now that I've see a small bit of Tibet and my headache has subsided, thought I'd toss in my .02 cents. We visited the two largest cities in Tibet - Lhasa and Xigase and passed through a number of rural districts, smaller towns and enclaves as well. These two cities, both modest in size are located in relatively low level river bottom land. The largest - Lhasa is about 11,800 feet above sea level, while Xigase is about 1000 feet higher. The surrounding Tibetan plateau is about 15000 - 16000 feet with mountains extending upwards from there. So now you might ask, why the lesson in geography, so what ? The point is Tibet is an extreme place, only a few can survive and flourish there. The relative lack of oxygen in Lhasa was enough to give everyone on our trip significant problems. The higher we traveled the worse it became. On our journey from Lhasa to Xigase, we took the traditional route, 10 hours by bus over two passes both about 16,000. People from lowlands cannot simply migrate to such extreme geography and expect to "adjust". The simple act of breathing is tough at such elevations. For example at the hotel where we resided while in Lhasa, one can order free of charge an "air pillow". Its a neoprene pillow with a breathing tube filled with oxygen enriched air. These were good. It helped momentarily to clear one's head, reduce the headache (caused I suppose by some low level of cerebral edema). In Lhasa pop 150,000, we saw a large component of the population were Chinese. These tended to be merchants and shopkeepers. There appeared to be a separation of the cultures. The Chinese primarily servicing Chinese customers, and the Tibetans serving Tibetans. Most true Tibetan peoples were more agrarian and lived in small pastoral farming and grazing enclaves outside of the towns. These enclaves lacked outward signs of Chinese or Western influence. None had electrical power, very little in the way of mechanized equipment, even running water was in limited visibility. Most depended on well water. At the one enclave that we visited extensively even a fourth wall was missing from most houses, the occupants depending on hanging cloth barriers to the outside elements. Yet these quarters seemed warm and cozy and a huge supply of quilt-like blankets was readily available. Yet the Tibetans seem to survive and flourish. They seemed happy and exuberant, children and adults waving, smiling at the passing of a bus, most engaged in field work raising their staple barley by hand and with yak power or tending flocks of goat and sheep on what I would consider hardscrabble lands. There was obvious sign of a military presence, but most of the military installations appeared empty in a pathetic ghost-town sort of way. The few soldiers that we saw appeared weak and lost in the vastness of the Tibetan highlands. No mechanization, frontier outpost duty, largely a show of force but not a significant force itself. One hamlet we passed through, on the shores of lake Yangdog Yumtso, Nagartse, seemed especially desolate. Populated by Chinese, it appeared as if everybody in town was waiting, possibly to catch the next bus out of town. The perception of commerce, industry, commercialization were lacking. They all looked like they would be desperately happy to flee their environment and head back to more suitable lowlands in Sechuan province if only they could - "Chengdu here I come, right back where I started from..." to put a tune to it. In this land of contrasts the Tibetan spirit showed its strength in its religious beliefs. The modern Tibetans like their ancestral heritage are firmly and strongly Buddhist. They filled the temples and shrines with their presence and their offerings of "yak butter" drippings, and token paper money. And what temples they have! Marvelous statuary and wonderfully detailed wall paintings. Icons filling every corner crack and crevice. Great stupas (burial chambers) in every temple and pictures adorning these. Monks at every temple and pilgrims galore. White silk scarves draped in profusion over every image of Buddha. Pleasant and remarkable to behold, the smell of yak butter burning, the feel of yak butter on every rail and surface. Every surface touched, and bowed before and kissed. Prayer wheels in profusion. The Tibetans rejoice in their religion, it is deeply entwined in their life. The people of Tibet are different genetically. They have more efficient lungs, bigger hearts and circulatory systems, over the ages they have adapted to their environment and they are thriving. I don't believe the current Chinese presence will prevail, the draw of the lowlands and the big cities will be too much to resist for most. Tibet is well worth the visit, but plan on buying some oxygen, you will need it. I climbed 10 mountains this summer in the northern Sierra as part of a regimen to get ready for Tibet. In the end it didn't seem to do much good. Perhaps I should have been climbing in the 10-14K range rather than the relatively low 7-10K range. Viva Tibet!