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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Benes who wrote (43380)	10/19/1999 4:10:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116753

what is more ominous, the XAU never confirmed the breakout and is headed lower. That's because it was a futures related rally, and not based on fundamentals. And as such it was the ECB that propagated this manoueuvre on the futures markets, the same way last week Greenspan functioned his rathe on the equities markets during options expiration. Fun games eh? So you get any GOLD stockies margin call yet? Barrick is currently selling at its 1993 level despite tripling its production and reserves. Gold was higher in 1993, then now. I know, I've seen the numbers. Now what is the market capitialization, BV, assets... of then compared to now. You anti hedger comments are ludicrous. If you are pro gold, you buy unhedged on the way up, and hedgers on the way down. Why own the hedgers. Cause they will be around longer then the non-hedgers when the price of gold drops. Hutch PS: :)

To: Ken Benes who wrote (43380)	10/19/1999 4:50:00 PM
From: Cascade Berry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116753

Ken...I agree...in spite of all the putative short positions posited by the conspiracy theorists, there is simply no URGENCY to cover those positions being technically demonstrated on this rally...thus the possibility of long term harm to the gold market is real. This rally may be almost OVER. If so, it will be over for a long time. This has been the pattern of this gold bear...anyone who bought on strength during increased volatility gets screwed. Buying gold when oil is at a high is also not a good idea. Airlines are a better bet. Not only has the basis for option pricing declined (POG down twenty since two weeks ago), but implied volatilities have also dropped, removing the urgency of the Cambiors of this world to cover...all they have to do is take out a further loan, and then mine the hell of their reserves to produce deliverable gold to fulfill their requirements. The posited short squeeze then fails to materialize, AND SUPPLY INCREASES at the higher price, along with NEW HEDGING by the previously unhedged miners who are very grateful to lock in one apparently last chance for survival. This is not a recipe for a bullish situation. Given the fact that it is now not obvious HOW TO PARTICIPATE in a POG rally, other than by buying bullion (not likely by most regular investors), as gold stocks are now TOO TREACHEROUS even on rising gold prices, most players will now avoid gold completely. You now have to not only be right on POG movements but possess a detailed understanding of each gold stocks balance sheet just to pick stocks which will correlate properly on a big POG move. It is the TRICKINESS of this which ultimately gets most investors. The other weirdness compounding all this is that THE WORST HARM from the 1987 decline was experienced by gold bugs. And it does seem to me to be uncannily similar in the general economic situation to that period...This is contrary to popular logic - if you bought gold stocks during the 87 decline, you were seriously harmed. Strangely, this could be a LAST GASP of a drowning metal, which has no apparent usefulness other than immutability. Don't get me wrong...I went heavily long at POG 255 on Kinross - because it was majorly unhedged...I still enjoy the thrill of the chase...but I am one of those profit takers at the 325 level. I'm not going short though now...this is still likely to be a continuation pattern in what will someday be revealed to be a bear market rally methinks. The major question in my mind is - if one is to accept the risk of speculating in metals and metals stocks, why bother with that metal which has the LOWEST RELATIVE STRENGTH...if one is trading from the long side? Buying platinum and shorting gold against it makes more sense. Cheers

To: Ken Benes who wrote (43380)	10/19/1999 5:24:00 PM
From: John Paquet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Ken, WHO the hell taught you retracement theory? Who the hell he is I want to know????? Is there any such theory called "retracement theory"???? I want to know also. Market up up and down down a few days of down tick makes some people so impatient. Gold had correction down from that $339 DEC contract down to today $306.50 ; closed at $309.50; and only less than 3 weeks of correction. Any commodity or security, price movement is subject a good correction, there is no such theory "retracement theory", it is an observation not theory at all. A theory is by all means, any security or commodity price will follow such theory "retracement" theory, if there is such theory, everyone will be multiple millionaire already. Use you common sense and observation to judge market up and down and down and up. decisionpoint.com XAU big open gap, I see that it is not even get closed yet, despite it is getting close to close it up, but gold $305 will gain strong support, I still see that gold bull up trend intact. decisionpoint.com DOW still in that big bear trend, despite today a bit weak of Housing Start and CPI numbers, DOW rallied nearly more than 250 pints and closed only up 88 points at 10,204 this kind of rally is a bear rally. Soon DOW will break that 10,000 decisionpoint.com DXY, U.S. dollar index is also in the bear trend, soon DXY will be in that .91 Having said that, it is rather easy for gold to move back up to that $339 again, and will break through it when Dow at 9,700 DXY at 95 etc..... Market up up and down down, it needs patience to see through it. John Paquet