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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LemonHead who wrote (8974)	10/19/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: LemonHead	Respond to of 18928

Hi All, I wanted to get this out to a few that might be interested. Normally I do this via email, but I currently don't have the pleasure of that service. :<( It is not going to format right on SI, but what's a sailor to do? Work with it best you can. ZRAN $27.00 - Zoran Corporation 10-19-99 Business Overview BRIEF: Zoran Corporation develops and markets software, integrated circuits and IC Intellectual Property cores for digital audio and video applications enabled by compression. For the six months ended 6/30/99, total revenues rose 40to$25.5M. Net income totaled $1.3M, vs. a loss of $357K. Revenues reflect increased DVD product line sales. Earnings also reflect an improved gross profit margin and a $732K gain on the sale of the SoftDVD product line. Zoran Corporation Reports Record Third Quarter Revenue and Earnings siliconinvestor.com For the first nine months of 1999, revenues increased to $41.6 million from $30.1 million for the comparable nine-month period in 1998. Net income for the nine-month period ended September 30, 1999 grew to $3.3 million, or $0.28 per share on a diluted basis, compared with $56,000, or $0.01 per share on a diluted basis, for the same period last year. "We achieved record revenues, unit volumes, operating profit and net income in the third quarter," said Dr. Levy Gerzberg, President and Chief Executive Officer of Zoran Corporation. "The DVD market continues to accelerate and drive the company's growth, as evidenced by our strong performance during the quarter which saw a sequential increase of 41 percent in DVD unit shipments. Our DVD product revenue accounted for more than 63 percent of product sales for the quarter." Upgrades / Downgrades History Date Broker Action From To 19-Oct-99 CE Unterberg Towbin Started - Buy 20-Aug-99 Salomon Smth Brny Started - Outperform 23-Jul-99 CE Unterberg Towbin Upgrade LT Buy Buy 1-Feb-99 CE Unterberg Twbn Started - LT Buy 29-Jan-99 CIBC Oppenheimer Upgrade Hold Strong Buy 14-Jan-99 Preferred Cap Mkts Upgrade Accumulate Buy 8-Sep-98 Preferred Cptl Mkts Upgrade Hold Accumulate ZORAN CP Current Price: $27.000 Report Date: 1/18/00 Previous Close: $25.250 Number of Analysts: 5 Dollar Change: 1.75 Average Target: $37.00 Percentage Change: 6.93% Poll Submissions: 0 Earnings Poll: N/A Statistics at a Glance -- ZRAN Price and Volume (updated Oct 18, 1999) Per-Share Data Management Effectiveness Book Value (mrq) $3.66 Return on Assets (ttm) 5.40% Earnings (ttm) $0.23 Return on Equity (ttm) 7.25% 52-Week Low $6.438 Sales (ttm) $4.49 Financial Strength Recent Price $25.25 Cash (mrq) $1.75 Current Ratio (mrq) 3.03 52-Week High $36.00 Valuation Ratios Long-Term Debt/Equity (mrq) 0 Beta 2.70 Price/Book (mrq) 6.91 Total Cash (mrq) $18.3M Daily Volume (3-month avg) 364.1K Price/Earnings (ttm) 110.75 Short Interest Share-Related Items Price/Sales (ttm) 5.62 Shares Short as of Sep 8, 1999 606.0K Market Capitalization $266.6M Income Statements Short Ratio 1.38 Shares Outstanding 10.6M After-Tax Income (ttm) $2.61M Float 5.70M Sales (ttm) $51.5M Dividend Information Profitability Annual Dividend none Profit Margin (ttm) 5.1% What I like right out of the gate is the small float and very small short ratio. This tells me that the company will continue to grow and profit. Fair value appears to be around $24.20 a share. Charts: clearstation.com easystock.com It has broken above the short term moving averages, may have the momentum to move back to $36. Maybe holiday sales of DVD's will push it on up. Web Page: zoran.com From Kevin Landis: fnews.yahoo.com Landis says the fund also did well in August with Zoran Corp. (NASDAQ:ZRAN - news) , a stock that he calls a proxy for Digital Video Disks (DVDs). 'It is a strong player for us,' says Landis. It's adding a lot of value to the DVD industry.' Zoran is a leader in integrated circuits (ICs) and software for digital video and audio applications using compression technology. I decided to take some suggestions from Jack & a few others and try to get at the real meat of the DD. JZGalt asked me to look into this one. With Landis on board, and from what I have seen I just think we might have a winner here. JMHO. I want this one for several reasons. Any thoughts or comments. LemonHead

To: LemonHead who wrote (8974)	10/20/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: Gary	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

LH If you incur a capital loss it can first be used to offset any capital gains that have been realized during that year. If the losses exceed the gains, then $3,000 can be offset against other income. The remainder carries forward and can be offset against gains in future years and ordinary income at the rate of $3,000 per year. The annual limitation relates only to amounts that offset other income. You can offset an unlimited amounts of capital gains in any any year. Gary

To: LemonHead who wrote (8974)	10/20/1999 10:28:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi Keith, The Idiot Wave components, during average risk markets, wander around on their own and usually not in concert. However, in times of extreme market stress, like '87, '90 and last year in the Fall the four components usually line up together as all being Bearish. Then after the pressure is relieved, they'll usually all fall to Bullish status. We can have high and low risk indications without all four components being in agreement. I don't ignore these events, but feel having all four in harmony is more significant. I "designed" the components to be high values during bearish periods. Then their sum gives us a high IW reading which corresponds to a very high Cash Reserve being suggested. Last Fall we had all four components showing Bullish conditions starting October 19th. Here's what they looked like at the time: Relative Valuation - 18.74; Bullish Speculation - (4.9); Bullish Divergence - 0.5; Bullish Zeal! - (3.0); Bullish Value Line's P/E was down to 14.5, Treasury rate was 4.242, the best performer in Value Line was up 73.2% while the worst was down 78.6%. It took just an 18% gain to make the Best list, while your stock had to be down nearly 62% to make the Worst list! There were only 30 New Highs while there were 868 New Lows! The total number of issues on the Nasdaq and NYSE was dropping quickly, down from 9450 to 9200 between July and October. You can't ask for better Bullish signals that those - and all in harmony. This last summer's High Risk reading had, at most, three of the four components in Bearish agreement. In my way of thinking, that's not as serious as when all four are working together. Right now we have two neutral, one bearish and one bullish. Mixed signals and the IW is in about the middle of its long term range. If we look back at last Summer's high risk reading and see where the DOW and NASDAQ have gone since, it wasn't a bad call. It was suggesting only a 49% commitment to equities back then and now is saying that 57% is good. That's quite a shift. In the mean time the market has consolidated nicely. Since Jan., '99 the NASDAQ has risen 38% to its yearly high. The DOW rose about 31% to its peak. There should be fat capital gains out there. There are also some nasty losses since the broad market hasn't participated as much as the averages would indicate. This could make for a busy "tax selling season." The very fact that you are asking about it here at this time indicates that it's probably already starting nation wide. Tax selling usually means a messy market for as long as it lasts. People sell their losers and pump the money into their winners. So the bad get worse and the good get better! This actually causes some "seasonality" in the Divergence component. If you think of market risk as being like climbing an extension ladder in a wind storm, then you can understand that our risk now is lower because we've backed down several rungs! Lucky for us Mr. Lichello is holding the base of our ladder! Best regards, Tom