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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8135)	10/19/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Gottfried, There are posters far more qualified than myself to interpret the data by Elizabeth Schumann. There is little chance of there being 4 $2.1 billion months. But even her data can be confusing. While she correctly states that capital investments in North America are 21% lower for the first eight months of this year, this could also be a shift of capacity from North America to S.E. Asia. I believe that the street more carefully watches the monthly BTB numbers. The fact that last month came in at 1.08, the third monthly decline since the peak of 1.28 in April and May, would lead many investors to erroneously conclude this cycle is in a downturn. But the reports by companies that have thus far reported would indicate just the opposite. So something is missing out of all of these figures. When LRCX reports in a few days we will have a better idea, because it is a larger company.(and hopefully larger orders). If the BTB turns upward for two consecutive months going from last months 1.08 to 1.11 and then to 1.15 is off to the races for the companies in this group. We can all say that these numbers aren't that important, but investors (mutual funds, and individuals do watch them) and use them for entry points and exit points for decisions on stocks in this area. I believe that Ian Stromberg has a better grasp on how to interpret the data from the monthly BTB. Other posters are invited to take a stab at it. By this time I have totally confused the issue. Good Luck. Jerome

To: Gottfried who wrote (8135)	10/20/1999 7:50:00 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Earthquake related effects show up in another quarterly report. This is a paragraph from today's earnings release. ""We are continuing to assess the effect of the earthquake on our business and anticipate tight supply from our Taiwanese supplier, TSMC, in the December quarter. In the September quarter we derived approximately one-third of our revenues from products supplied by TSMC. We believe that we can obtain adequate supply from our other manufacturers, including Taiwan-based UMC, for our other products in this quarter." This report came from GNSS (Genesis Microchip). The report also showed robust increase in chip sales and confirms the statements from IBM's report on the shortage in Flat Panel Displays. Good luck, Jerome