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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (30915)	10/19/1999 11:56:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Dwight, I wouldn't be surprised to see MSFT close tomorrow at $94 on strong volume -- but perhaps that is irrationally exuberant expectations -- but an MSFT-led tech rally would sure help out the SPX (and the Nasdaq 100, etc). I thought about calls on MSFT as well but just could not get myself to buy. I had a feeling the forward looking statements would not be as bad as in the past simply because of the damage from Ballmer's comments and underperformance of the stock. However, i had agreed with the analysts' comments regarding slowdown in Office2k revenue and that was a reason for being cautious and not assuming call option positions. I should have realized that MSFT deals directly with many large corporations in licensing Office2k. I had just paid attention to Dell advertising with fewer systems offering Office2k in some standard package. The conference call cleared up my concerns. MSFT has finally realized that they need to play the good guy and get investors to like them---not only MSFT investors. It is a matter of image---which might help change the public biases. I think they are now on the right track. If they are successful in helping turn around the market, they instantly have a lot of supporters and that is what they need. I remember the IBM share buyback the day after the big declines a couple of years ago (forgot the date). The news was that the IBM announcement turned around the market. That made all the newspapers and tv stations---what a great PR move that was. Jackson's fact findings on a "friday" probably means this friday and maybe that will still allow me to buy some calls. I think the momentum is about to pick up in MSFT and bad news on the legal front every now and then won't slow it down significantly, IMHO. I am looking for January 100s or April 110s or 120s as my more speculative plans. Of course November 100s would be very interesting if one wants to give it a try. The bet is that Jackson's statements won't be as bad as everyone expects. The worst case scenario is probably factored in and the stock should move up on the "news". A very negative fact finding won't help in any settlement but a mixed one sure will. Jackson wants a settlement and this is the way he can get it----ie don't give either side too much amo. Maybe i should not be posting this until i make my buys.<g> As for the markets, tomorrow's trade balance or imbalance (whatever) should also be better than expected considering the weakened dollar (i am hoping). If it is a good number, bonds and stocks might finally rally. There is only one more week left in October for bargain hunting and i would expect the stocks to take off by next week with or without the bonds. I hope it is both stocks and bonds. Good Luck. BTW--noticed Dollar moving up in asian tradinga against the Yen and the asian markets are looking strong.