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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (30693)	10/20/1999 6:11:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Steve, You are correct that my comments are a simplification of the trade issue, but I could go into much further detail. As for using the term JUNK CARGO, that is term that most in the biz used including the exporters themselves. Those exporters realise that they are not shipping gold. Being in the biz for that long, I did not consider the effects of using that terms for those not familiar with the biz. Besides crude, I have also left out breakbulk cargoes; however I do believe my simplification of the LA DOCKS is still accurate. I have mentioned in the past that a container of wastepaper has a f.o.b. value of around $500-1500, while a container of electronics on the inbound side can easily exceed $500,000, as an illustration of the divergence. So it would take a heck of alot of wastepaper to equal 1 import container of electronics. Of course we do not only import electronics, but even cheaper commodities like garments and toys are still in the 6 figures. What is interesting is that there is a seasonality issue that is not mentioned by the news, and is quite simplistic. Once the XMAS shipping season is over there is almost always a significant drop in imports which would lessen the divergence between the exports and imports. Keep in mind that the parts of ASIA shut down for about 2 weeks around FEB for the lunar new year. seeya