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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: d:oug who wrote (43407)10/22/1999 5:14:00 AM
From: d:oug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116753
 
Sometimes it seems Greenspan has completely lost touch with reality.

David Tice
The Prudent Bear Fund
ticed@prodigy.net
October 20, 1999

"Efficient" Capital Markets or Egregious Credit Excesses?

... while Greenspan can today celebrate that a "vicious circle" never
got established last year, this is silly analysis as the subsequent
unprecedented credit melee only gave a huge booster shot of adrenaline
to a financial and economic bubble already running out of control. We
certainly believe that financial and economic historians will look back
and believe that this precarious bubble should have been pierced last
fall. After years of reckless speculating and leveraging in the
financial system and endemic credit excess-induced economic distortions
to the real economy, the damage was in the process of being exposed, and
it appeared that the inevitable and necessary adjustment period was at
hand. But instead, the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the
Federal Home Loan Bank System and many large banks and security firms
moved aggressively to create enough credit and financial market
liquidity to keep the game going. And go it did, with a momentous and
unacceptable cost left to fester for later. Amazingly, yesterday Mr.
Greenspan also mentioned the dangers of moral hazard and market
distortions posed by a "lender of last resort." But somehow he fails to
associate these factors with last year's bailout. Sometimes it seems
Greenspan has completely lost touch with reality.

... than the world's largest casino. As such, it is absolutely
ridiculous that Greenspan claims that this is an "efficient" allocation
of resources. All one has to do is look at some of the recent "hot" IPOs
for clear evidence that something serious has run amuck. At the same
time, over $1 trillion of additional debt has been added to an already
over-leveraged economy, much of it in an unprecedented explosion of
household mortgage debt that has provided more fuel to a residential
real estate bubble. And as consumers dig deeper into debt to fuel the
greatest consumption binge in history, economic history teaches us that
there is no way to avoid the inevitable painful adjustment after years
of excess.

... ballooned over the past year. As such, this sector is clearly one
massive speculative bubble, and this leads us to expect that the coming
adjustment could be quite violent. Moreover, this is an area where
derivative trading plays a dominant role.

Undoubtedly, derivative-related leverage has been a key factor that has
surreptitiously fueled the speculative bubble on the upside, but now
holds potential to feed collapse on the downside.....
... With the proliferation of stock and stock options as
an integral part of employee compensation packages, there is significant
potential for panic if individuals dump holdings in a rush to liquidity.
One thing is for sure, when the speculative spell is broken, there will
be an overhang of employee stock to be sold for years to come.

The stock market is now clearly an accident waiting to happen...

David Tice, The Prudent Bear Fund, ticed@prodigy.net, October 20, 1999

Midas du Metropole has served commentary at the James Joyce Table

I will be a presenting speaker at New Orleans Investment Conference
on Saturday morning, November 6th. I had the pleasure of knowing
Jim Blanchard and it is an honor to be speaking at this conference
and to be a part of what he believed in so much.

I will arrive on Friday and look forward to meeting any Cafe members
that might be attending. For information on this popular forum call
1 800 648 8411.

Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti Trust Action (GATA) gata.org
Le Patron, Le Metropole Cafe lemetropolecafe.com



To: d:oug who wrote (43407)10/22/1999 5:17:00 AM
From: d:oug  Respond to of 116753
 
The last time I heard this much whining and hopelessness from our team was...

The "malign forces" are doing their thing; they will lose! The gold
price continues to retreat as the "Hannibal Cannibal" bullion dealer
forces mobilize their "sugar daddies" to help them out of a big mess.
Goldman Sachs bombed the gold market again today with some early help
from Chase Bank. However, Chase .....

If you are a contrarian and like to buy when other investors are all in
despair - now is the time. The last time I heard this much whining and
hopelessness from our team was right before the price of gold took off
towards $337.

...... For every long that leaves, another long enters.

This confirms our opinion that there are legions of buyers ready to
step up to the plate on the long side.....

The December contract still has an open interest of 115,523 contracts.
I still look for an attempted squeeze of this Comex contract as we go into
the delivery period...

And this from the Denver Gold Group Conference:

..... they will return to historical trading ranges in 1 to 2 years.

I could not agree more. And that will be just the first step.

The big story of the day was the news that Kuwait announced...
(according to Reuters)

No surprise here. The Kuwaits were "English Poodlerized" by the U.S.
officialdom on behalf of the desperado bullion dealers.....
..... is that the "Hannibal" crowd, in its desperation to get gold
supply on the market, gave very favorable credit terms to many producers
regarding margin calls and roll over lease rate terms; meaning that they
took on risks that normally might have been passed on to the producers.
Now they are choking on their own terms.....

This bullion dealer game is a joke. How obvious can it get? First, the
Bank of England was called on to preannounce, in almost unprecedented
fashion, a gold sale policy that has completely backfired (see Smithers
below). Now the Kuwaitis, who need U.S. armed forces protection, are
called on to lend gold all of a sudden when the "Hannibal Cannibals" are
in trouble once again. The good news is Goldman Sachs and Peter Fisher
of the N.Y. Fed are running out of supply sources. The better news is
that it is now so evident what is going on here, it is only a matter of
time before the gold market manipulation scandal becomes front page news
in the mainstream press.

The Kuwaitis are not slick Gordon Browns however. They are doing
what they have to do and will lend their gold per Uncle Sams request,
NOT SELL IT.

Midas has the real Kuwait story for you. The Kuwaitis are very, very
bullish on golds price prospects....

Just for the record, the Kuwaiti Investment authority owns 83% of Thistle.

Thistles' main man on Bay Street is Peter Aitken, the grandson of Max
Aitken, better known in England as Lord Beaverbrook, according to
Kaihla. Some crew this Thistle has. Bottom line is that the Kuwaitis
are very bullish on the gold market. Take that you "Hannibal Cannibals."

The Cafe has many members who attended the prestigious Denver Gold Group
Conference held the past few days in Denver, Colorado. I have some
feedback from them for you.....

I think it will take three to six months before people start to believe
the price of gold is going higher. Do we think there will be a very
significant redistribution of money within the sector? The winners over
the past few years will now be the losers, and the losers will be the
winners....

Many of the major gold producers were all over Frank Veneroso, who gave
the presentation at the Solomon Smith Barney dinner Solomon Smith Barney
dinner the other night. I am told that many producers now believe that
it is much more than likely that Frank is the one who has this market
nailed when it comes to the fundament

The reason: As they interact with Frank and come to really comprehend
his calculations, many gold producers will be cutting back on their
forward sales, which will bring producer buying into the gold pits.

These same sources tell me GATAs fax campaign encouraging overly hedged
producers to cover was very timely. Congratulations to the renowned
novelist, Arthur Hailey, and to all of you that made the effort to wake
up some of these execs. It made the impact we had hoped for as Gold Co.
CEOs know what they will face in the future if they dont lighten up on
their hedges when they have an opportunity to do so. Like right now! How
does a CEO explain poor share performance in the future for failing to
cover a percentage of forward sales when he was put on notice by so many?

The one month lease rate has retreated down to 1.94%, while the 6 month
lease rate is still a hearty 3.24%. The six month rate is more a....

Ashanti has been given more time, with another short term extension in
its standstill agreement with its hedging counterparties. Few that I
talk to really seem to know what the deal is there except that the
bullion dealers (led by Goldman Sachs) were very negligent in the
consultancy they gave Ashanti. VERY NEGLIGENT.

These same dealers are still at it. More word from the Denver conference
is they are still saying to certain producers: hedge or lose credit
lines. Talk about conflict of interest. The dealers make no fees if
producers do not hedge. Thus, they con them into all these
incomprehensible "structured dealers," talk down the future price of
gold, and threaten their credit standards if they do not hedge. That is
why I nicknamed Goldman Sachs: "Hannibal Lecter" and the rest of this
crowd the "Hannibal Cannibals." I suspect their loathsome ways are going
to eventually boomerang and bite them in the ******.

(off topic)

Had a great trip to Denver to meet the new Golden Star Resources
President Peter Bradford and say hello to the outgoing and well known
Jim Askew who is headed back to his native Australia to run a large
cobalt, nickel and platinum company, Black Range Minerals (BLR. AU). Jim
will remain as a GSR board director. Peter Bradford, the CEO, has a long
standing relationship with Jim Askew and was brought into GSR because of
his mining operator credentials. This should bode well for GSR as its
Ghana gold mining operations gain some steam. While in Denver, I ran
into George Ireland of D. M. Knott Limited Partnership note. George is a
well known money manager based in Denver who is ecstatic about the price
prospects for Golden Star.

I also met up with Denvers Peter Bojtos who is on the Board of
Directors of many mining companies, including ECU Silver. Peter is a
rock hound who knows the nuts and bolts of mining operations. Briefly,
he told me he was pleased with the progress ECU is now making at
Valardena silver mine outside of Torreon, Mexico and looks for the share
price to move much higher as the mainstream precious metals analysts see
ECU silver achieve commercial production numbers with low cash costs.

Andrew Smithers is a very highly regarded and conservative economist who
is no gold bug. The world is learning what a sham the English gold sales
are. Gordon Brown looks like a buffoon really. He sells gold in the hole
(which goes straight up) to buy U.S. bonds, in part, that go straight
down.

(on topic)

The following is a news story out of England:

Bullion sales that glitter may not be golden

by ANDREW SMITHERS, Chairman of fund manager advisers Smithers & Co

Ever Since, with great fanfare but without good cause, Gordon Brown...

...Veneroso Associates points out that the agreement allows Britain to
continue selling all the gold it originally planned. As for the limit on
lending, its estimate is that after the planned sales all the rest of
the UKs gold had already been lent. Having no more gold to offer,
Gordon Brown agreed not to offer more. End

Gold bullion and silver are great buys here. So are the good gold and
silver juniors and exploration companies. Why let the Scots and the
Kuwaitis be the vultures and pick up great companies on the cheap? This
is an opportunity of a lifetime once again. The public does not get it
yet. Even gold share investors have little clue what is coming. On this
gold rally, many long time gold share investors sold what stocks were
moving up because they could not sell some of their dogs. Boy, will they
be sorry.

All the best,
Bill Murphy, Chairman
Gold Anti Trust Action (GATA) gata.org
Le Patron, Le Metropole Cafe lemetropolecafe.com