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To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/20/1999 3:46:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

STFU<g>

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/20/1999 3:51:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

You are on the right track, except for where we are going to set up our compound. -g-

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/20/1999 4:08:00 PM
From: TheStockFairy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I dunno, I got wiped out in the great bear raid of July 99 (last put play was INTC). Since then, I have converted to a bull and have gotten wiped out the other way (let's just not talk about that). Presently, I am working and enjoying a paycheck week to week that my wife takes from me and hides somewhere in the back yard. One of these days, I am going to find those coffee cans. You like apples? How you like dem apples.....

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/20/1999 4:11:00 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 86076

robert, the bull will collapse, just not yet... you will have to wait, as we all will <ng> mohan's sell to whom scenario will eventually take hold, but not yet...not everyone is in...

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/20/1999 4:27:00 PM
From: Zach E.	Respond to of 86076

Robert, I think that it is worth mentioning that Japan had many of the same things intact in the late 80s as Wall Street does today. In fact, my understanding is that the gov't there actively tried to prop the market up, and it still crashed. Zach

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/20/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: wlheatmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

Robert, Rent the movie,,,,Very Bad Things,,,..just saw that and it reminds me of this market...things get so freaking out of hand and one bad thing feeds on another that evetually,,,it's nothing but disaster and it's an inevitable result.....the only way out is to blow it all up and start over.... I, too,,,,am dejected at the potential outcome....rooting for the bull to collapse is no good,,,but i think it's inevitable for the near to intermediate term,,,,that doesn't necessary mean we have to crash to nothing,,,but i think a good amount of fear and loathing is needed....we need to get back to the bar with espn on instead of the freaking cnbc on... we need kids to go play ball and study science and math instead of wondering about investing in ibm or lu,,,,wtf is that? that can't be good for squat....trading one piece of paper for another is not productive and... we're like the Roman Empire,,,we got nowhere to go but down....the excess and greed in our society is beyond belief and yet,,,it keeps getting worse... hopefully,,,we will come out of the implosion with some sense of what's really important... how much freaking money does one need anyway? you asked for it....lol.....i know stfu... mike

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/21/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

You'll get your collapse, only later than you think, and you won't make any money on it. Just a sad fact of life!

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/21/1999 12:33:00 AM
From: BGR	Respond to of 86076

Robert, I thought that John Neff, Paul Volcker, Warren Buffett, Steve Balmer et al were also on the side of the bears? Of course, they collectively pale in contrast to Luc, but still, I think that they should be counted. -BGR.

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/21/1999 1:33:00 AM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Peter Eliades' Stockmarket Cycles Update Wednesday, October 20, 1999. Look at the front page chart on our October 15 newsletter or look at the same chart on our Current Observation page on our website. It shows the S&P daily close accompanied by what we call the daily Coppock Curve equivalent. It appeared as we were writing our newsletter last week, that the indicator was just a day or two away from breaking major support that has held it up over the past three years. It closed last Friday at 45.08. The readings for the first three day of this week have been 44.88, 44.70 and today's reading of 44.57. Despite the sharp three day rally, it has barely affected the readings --in fact the readings have continued down fairly strongly and it looks like the break this time is the real thing. In order to turn the indicator around tomorrow, for example, it would take a rally to over 1366 on the S&P Cash. That's right, a rally of 6% would be required just to move the indicator sideways tomorrow. This is almost surely a real break down after three years of support at the same level. A break down of the indicator implies a breakdown of the up-trend line from the July '96 low through the April '97 and October '98 lows on the S&P Cash. Today that up trendline is around 1128.50 on the S&P Cash. That is down 12 1/2% from today's close. The implication is that that line should be broken and perhaps very quickly. Lending credence to that possibility are the current trading index readings. TRIN 5 popularized by Jerry Favors, closed today at 4.09, in other words a five day moving average of .818. The Open 10 TRIN is at .88 from yesterday's .86 and the Open 30 TRIN went to a new recent low of .899. That is the lowest most overbought reading in six months. It is just mind-boggling that those reading are occurring as the daily advance-decline line is less than 500 units away from the multi-year low that it made on Monday of this week. Based on that configuration of three year lows on the advance-decline line, and six months overbought lows on the Open 30 TRIN, it would be hard to imagine a more bearish scenario. Incidentally, the Dow 's 372.65 point rally over the past three market days, since last Friday, has been accompanied by a daily advance-decline line which has decline 370 units. Another item of technical interest, despite the fabulous rally in the Dow today, the number of new lows increased from yesterday's 275 to today's reading of 320. The action is truly unbelievable. Can the market continue to hold up under this incredible rock that is taking place internally? We should know very soon. We should say that all the signposts are not completely negative. The price projections are actually calling for the possibility of higher prices here. We believe there is a good chance that they will be invalidated, but we will watch them for you over the next day or two. Mutual fund switchers, Rydex switchers are in the Ursa fund. Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call after 3:20 p.m. ET and every market evening. Stock Index futures traders, you shorted at 1285.00 on the December S&P and were stopped at 1294.80 for a $9.80 loss. Tomorrow could be tricky. Stock Index futures are down $7.20 as we come on line around 8:25 ET. Attempt to sell short at 1298.20 market if touched with a stop at 1307.90. If you are stopped out, or if that price is not available, sell short a move below 1276.00 on the December S&P with a stop at 1286.90. If they open below 1276, then you would sell short at the opening with a stop $11.90 above the opening price. No new projections on bonds or the XAU. Have a great day. We'll talk to you tomorrow. >><<

To: Robert who wrote (70448)	10/21/1999 9:16:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Robert, you make an excellent point so why are you bearish? -g- The big story which does not receive adequate attention is the unprecedented excesses in debt. See siliconinvestor.com Bill Fleckenstein mentions a Fed study of 110 companies who spent 125% of after tax earnings buying shares. I also recall that in 4Q98 companies spent 130% . In 1929 $2 of debt was created for every dollar of GDP - we recently hit a rate of $5 debt for every dollar of GDP. Much the credit creation is fueling speculation. Keep in mind companies also need to reinvest in their businesses of course with executive stock options abuses they can take the money and run before reality sets in. To keep a credit bubble going you need an ever increasing expansion of credit but at some point your balance sheet will become so strained that a retrenchment is inevitable ( deflation- I mean a contracting of credit ) The consumer is also increasing his/her debt load. Corporate share repurchases are the largest source of demand for stocks -bigger than the baby brats money flows. Why do companies continue to buy their stock at unprecedented valuations - stock options. If I were to write a book about this mania I would call it Excesses in Debt - the Road to Tough Love and Economic Violence ho ho ho BTW They call me Mr. Tough Love -g- ho ho ho Mike