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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (31090)	10/22/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Matt, you are quite right that there are more verbal than real bears out there...the fully invested bears as they are known. but you are wrong to think that the MDA thread is home to many perma bears...it isn't. some play the ripples, some take a longer term view, and by and large the thread is quite good at spotting the trends of all time frames. the reason why the thread sometimes sounds more bearish than bullish overall is that we all realize that the market has reached nosebleed valuations while the very factors supporting such valuations continue to crumble (market internals, interest rates). the fact that bearishness in general is more a matter of word than deed is however NOT a good sign...it means that what is supposed to be a contrary sentiment gauge has in fact less validity since the positioning is in fact different than the sentiments expressed in the polls. in fact most people continue to extrapolate the gains of the last few years indefinitely into the future, and that is a folly imo. what makes you think that the bear market as evidenced by the a/d line is going to end "any day now" as you put it? what exactly will end it? the a/d line looks oversold, but it looked oversold last week, last month and three months ago. the most disturbing facet of the a/d divergence remains the fact that no true washout in the leading large cap stocks has occurred as of yet to make the indices catch up with it and create a truly credible bottom. as long as that has not happened, calls for a bottom will probably remain premature. regards, hb

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (31090)	10/22/1999 6:50:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

To Matt, Donald, OJ and anyone else who wants to jump in the bulls ring this week: I am concerned that the scmr debut marks some kind of blow off for the inet ipo market. I mean I just can't imagine this kind of excess continuing much longer. And since inet ipos reflect the exuberance of the inet sector, and since the inets have led many of the bull runs of the recent and not so recent past, I can't help but view today's scmr price action as quite worrisome. Expecially when viewed against the background of charts like the djia and spx, potential October jitters, interest rate threats, etc. I'm starting to sound like Heinz. HELP! <g>

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (31090)	10/22/1999 7:44:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Matt, My bullish friend. Some comments... If all of the perma bears on MDA had truly played the market in the direction of their posts, they would all be sleeping on park benches. I think there are more verbal bears out there than real bears IMHO <g> Look at my post from tonight. I posted that I think we head down from here to Dow sub 10000. However, if I change my mind Monday morning at 10 am, I probably won't post it. The markets change on a dime and so should our opinions. Incidently, we really have been in a bear market for 20 months now (in terms of the broader market. The indices are really deceptive in this regard. Correct. And we have yet to see the price result of this bear market. IMO, price will catch up with breadth in due time. Only a fool would bet against it right now. I plan to go short Monday morning. The rallys in bear markets tend to be sharp and relatively large. BWDIK, time will tell... Regards, Chris