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To: John Stewart who wrote (2053)10/23/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: John Stewart  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
BTW;

The average est for next year is 0.60 and the "model" is 0.79. Since the analysts tend to use conservative rev trends at this stage, there may not be too much room for analysts such as Mark Fitzgerald at ML whose questions/focus appear to be PE based, for an upgrade in the next 6 months.

Best Regards,
John Stewart



To: John Stewart who wrote (2053)10/23/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: Bill Hermesmann  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
John,
Love your analysis and thanks very much from the silent masses (hopefully). If, in fact, Mattson would achieve the earnings target of 350M sales and 3.08 earnings in 2001 I believe the current PE at that time, with all things of cycles and future expectations considered, would be no more than 10 on current earnings. This, in my opinion, would make anything over 30 a reasonable target for the stock. Market crazies or an expansion of Mattson's niche could, of course, create something better along the way.



To: John Stewart who wrote (2053)10/25/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 

H&Q's Numbers John Stewart's Numbers.
1999 2000 2001
1998 A 1999 E 2000 E Rev/Erng Rev/Erng Rev/Erng
Q1 EPS $(0.09) $(0.16)A $0.08 41/0.10 75/0.47
Q2 EPS (0.09) (0.01)A 0.13 50/0.16 83/0.65
Q3 EPS (1.10) 0.02A 0.23 58/0.23 92/0.86
Q4 EPS (0.33) 0.06 0.33 33/0.05 67/0.31 100/1.10
FY EPS (1.62) (0.08) 0.77 216/0.79 350/3.08
FY REVS(M) 59.2 100 148
CY EPS (1.62) (0.08) 0.77
CY P/E NM NM 15



Now John, who's being the most conservative? Only 2¢ more annual earnings on $68M more revenue....

Best wishes,
Ian.



To: John Stewart who wrote (2053)1/18/2000 7:29:00 PM
From: lrrp  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3661
 
John, do you think cvd will ramp up faster than you thought and does your extrapolation from the conference call still hold? thanks, steve
Message 11684067