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To: JRI who wrote (145811)10/26/1999 10:52:00 AM
From: G.M. Flinn  Respond to of 176387
 
John - you raise some great points re: ultimate pricing power that DELL can/will achieve and the eventual demise of 1 or 2 significant players in the industry. Recall that M.Dell announced in front of the shareholders meeting in July that DELL expected 1 of the top 5 players to leave the business in the near future. OT, go SANM!

Glenn



To: JRI who wrote (145811)10/26/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: rudedog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
John -
I agree that Capellas has been largely invisible to the general public, and certainly to wall street. I guess we'll know pretty soon if that was a good or a bad plan. I have heard some good things about him from customers who have met with him. I am reserving judgement until I see what results he brings in, in my mind "the proof is in the pudding".

Also agree that the CPQ "Active Answers" ads are weak. I like the newer simplified ads better. At least they give some sense of company direction and "personality" which the old ones did not do at all.

Likewise, I think that the market share battle was foolish. Clearly IBM got killed with their loss leaders, and HP did not do much better. Looking at the numbers, CPQ was no worse than the others, but what did it buy them?

I think that the smaller players will continue to be marginalized to the point where they drop out - Packard-Bell being a prime example. IBM will, I think, reposition their PC line as an adjunct to their overall systems business. HP was moving in that direction but who knows where Carley will take them.

As far as CPQ dying on the vine, the top line will be the measure of that. In the PC space, the recent numbers are actually better than I expected, given the turmoil in the company. We should know later today how their enterprise business is going, which is really the key for CPQ going forward.

DELL should be in an increasingly good position WRT suppliers. That is being counteracted by the other forces acting on them in their new leadership role. I am looking for them to work out their enterprise strategy which is unclear to me at the moment, especially with the IBM moves. But clearly DELL has gone from bit player to well known underdog to industry leader. That usually requires a great deal of management agility and induces some culture shock. MSFT did it, Intel did it... it can certainly be done.



To: JRI who wrote (145811)10/26/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: Lee  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Hi John,..Re:.in 2/3 years....is Packard-Bell/NEC going to be selling PCs...What about HP (in the corporate space)...IBM?

John, these questions about current market share (PCs) seem a little shaky to me. Unless someone presents a spreadsheet showing total PC units sold along with the proportional units of each vendor, then we can't say for sure how exactly market share is distributed. For instance, what about the no-name vendors?

Also, given the fact that CPQ has focused on large enterprise systems, and Dell is focusing on it's core PC, small server business, is it still relevant to count PC market share for any of them? Furthermore, if you look at IBM's 10Q, you will notice that global services along with Enterprise services and software exceed their hardware revenues. Also, notice the margins on these other businesses. So it is not surprising to me that HWP and CPQ would prefer to concentrate energy on these businesses.

Finally, since CPQ is re-organizing and HWP has a new CEO and also reorganizing, how can any of us say what the state of the business will be in the next few quarters, much less years? Especially given the different focus? Also, because the PC is the corporate tool used to communicate with the enterprise or large systems, it will probably always be a part of the core businesses of all.

Just some thoughts that have been puzzling me about this constant barrage of which company will be left standing in five years, (not from you).<g>

Cheers,

Lee

The Braves stink! PHEW!!! <ggg>